The post is interesting. The basics are that:
- The war goes on with Iran pulling out of the war effort because of American sanctions. Iran's remaining money is being saved to prepare Syria-based forces to fight Israel.
- One result is that Assad is stalled with control of his core region from the coast down to the Israeli border, and not much more. He has 70% of the territory and half of the pre-war population. Another 20% fled the country, while 14% are in the northwest in either the Turkish buffer zone or the rebel Idlib region. And 11% is in the largely Kurdish controlled northeast and east.
- Assad doesn't have a lot of incentive to get the rebel northwest back in control. And he lacks the troops to take back much more except with slow fire-power intensive tactics that keep his own casualties down. Russia is backing this effort.
- In other areas where the rebels were defeated, Assad is relying on tribal and local leaders to declare loyalty and maintain control. This is more like a feudal system than a unitary state ruled from Damascus, as I've noted.
- In the east where Syria does stand, they've been losing 40-50 troops per month fighting ISIL terrorists. That's a lot for a war being over.
- The Kurds are willing to formally come home with autonomy. But the Turks, Iranians, and Iraqis are opposed.
Note that while the Deeply Concerned focus on Yemen and want to enable an Iranian win there, the world shrugs as the far higher body count in Syria continues to climb.
So the war goes on. It could flare up, too, in a number of areas. And I don't assume Assad is in the clear. Will his yoked supporters yet make him pay a price for the victory?
UPDATE: Syrian forces made some advances at Tal Malah village and the nearby town of Jibeen after a stalemated period:
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported the advances, saying the troops were able to seize the territory after militant groups withdrew, following intense air and ground shelling.
The question is whether the Syrians will hold the ground. Sometimes it is better to withdraw and counterattack rather than sit and take the firepower punishment.
