Yes:
For four decades, China has carried out one of the longest, fastest and biggest economic transformations in history. Integral to China's miracle has been its 1-child policy, which has constrained the size of its bulging population. But demographic experts say that, even though 2 children per family are now permitted, the policy has baked in a dire mid-century future for China.
So dramatic are the unfolding trends that they will swamp geopolitics and make China's rise much less certain, argues Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographic expert at the American Enterprise Institute.
This is what I've been saying, although our reproduction rate is lower than when I wrote this eight years ago (but China may have already peaked):
China's population is estimated to peak in about 2030 at 1.393 billion. By 2100, China will decline to 0.941 billion people. America, at a Census Bureau middle projection will tip the scales at 0.571 billion. At the high end projection, we'll have 1.182 billion people. Note that the projection made 11 years ago for today's population was 302,300,000 and the high end was given as 314,846,00. We are actually at 311,308,000, so we are closer to the high end prediction than the middle projection.
With all the caveats about projecting that far into the future, we could have from 60% of China's population to more people than China! Will China have twice the GDP per-capita as America then? With a population older than our population? Because if not, China's lead in gross GDP will not last and we will regain that title well before 2100 rolls around (unless India is the one to surpass us in gross GDP).
Don't count America out. The Soviets, the Japanese, and the European Union all thought they would be the ones to dethrone America. China could join the list of failures.
UPDATE: Of course, not all the people are reliable. And China got a reminder that sometimes the people you rule aren't happy with the form of your rule:
While Hong Kong was an enormous economic asset, the Chinese government saw the pro-democracy attitudes to the Hong Kong residents as a threat. Over the last five weeks, the government received another reminder of how important freedom is to those who see it threatened.
The current round of popular protests began on June 4th when Hong Kong was the only place in China were thousands of people could gather to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. Hong Kong is the only place in China where you can do a lot of things.
Hong Kong protesters seem to have killed the proposal to allow for extradition to mainland China where the judges are more reliable from Peking's point of view.
I'm not terribly optimistic that the people of Hong Kong can be a vanguard of freedom before China snuffs out that flame of liberty. But you never know.
UPDATE: Thoughts on China and Hong Kong.
