Russia's military power is fairly weak between the levels of special forces and nuclear war, when you factor in their long land borders and the economic power of potential foes in Europe and China.
Special forces and small-scale operations give the impression of conventional power; but Russia relies on their nuclear weapons to really deter or stop a large-scale invasion.
So it doesn't surprise me that the Russians could be testing small nuclear warheads:
Negotiated in the 1990s, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) enjoys wide global support but must be ratified by eight more nuclear technology states, among them Israel, Iran, Egypt and the United States to come into force.
Russia ratified it in 2000.
However, the head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) said, “The United States believes that Russia probably is not adhering to its nuclear testing moratorium in a manner consistent with the ‘zero-yield’ standard.”
At an arms control forum at the Hudson Institute, DIA head Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley said, “We believe they have the capability in the way they are set up” to conduct low-level nuclear tests that exceed the zero yield limit set in the CTBT.
I'm not surprised because Russia relies so much on nukes to cover their conventional weakness that relying on computer simulations to test their warheads might be considered too risky.
Although to be fair, the charge is only that the Russians can test such small nukes and not that they have. The Russians deny they have done so.
Seriously, I've expressed my doubts about whether Russia's nukes will go boom at all:
Russia's long-range missiles are eroding but they will likely be a deterrent because we can't really know how reliable they are and just thinking a 50% success rate exists still means that is a lethal threat.
But Russia, which will know the real state of their nukes (one assumes), isn't counting on that uncertainty and seems to be emphasizing shorter-range missiles that are more reliable because they are simpler. And relying on those weapons to the point of violating the INF treaty.
Mind you, there is no formal obligation to not detonate test warheads or even to set up to test small nukes. The treaty isn't in effect. The actual halt in nuclear tests has been purely voluntary by us and them. Ideally from the Russian point of view, by testing they gain confidence that their nukes actually work while everyone else can't really know if the simulations reflect the real world.
While I worry our warheads might not work, too, at least any problems we have can be addressed with money and advanced computer simulations. Russia may not be confident that works for them. Maybe the Russians have lost confidence in their models. Or maybe the models say their warheads don't work and the Russians need physical tests to restore their confidence that they are not open to invasion by superior conventional attacks or even nuclear strikes to take advantage of their weakness.
I doubt if Russia is interested in fielding small nukes. That hasn't been their style which has always leaned toward megatons rather than kilotons. But Russia has an incentive to test actual warheads even if they are simply much smaller yields of the same design as their larger versions designed for their intercontinental and theater-range missiles.
If small enough, Russia can deny they are testing nukes and will have real world data to make sure their only real deterrent to invasion and dismemberment (by China in practice, assuming Russian paranoid fantasies about NATO are mere propaganda they don't actually believe) actually works.
And it isn't as if Russia can announce they are doing this because it would telegraph their lack of confidence in their nuclear deterrent.
We don't need a naturally paranoid Russia feeling they have their back to the wall. God help us all if Russia's nukes are now God's terrible swift sword:
Having built up close relationships with all parts of the defence establishment, especially the triad of forces which stand ready to deliver land-, sea- and air-launched nukes, the Russian Orthodox church is now reinforcing its role at the apex of the country’s military machine.
I have to admit, I didn't see that one coming.
Which is one more reason to hope that Russia will stop their pointless hostility toward America and the West so we can lower the tensions and improve relations with each other.
Is China not a big enough problem for both Russia and America?
Have a super sparkly day.
