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Thursday, May 23, 2019

The Wrong War at the Wrong Time in the Wrong Place

Russian air defenses are inadequate against both NATO and China. Russia could choose to have an adequate air defense against China.

One of the benefits of Russia ending its pointless and counterproductive hostility toward NATO (although there was a point before it became counterproductive) is that Russia could shift air defense systems needed to make good on Russia's hostility to NATO with its excellent air power that will only get better as the F-35 inventory in NATO expands to the Far East to face China where Russian air defenses are inadequate:

“Given the size of the district, the extremely underdeveloped ground communications on its territory and the presence of the most serious threats from the United States, Japan, China, the grouping of ground defense in the Far East is completely inadequate and requires repeated amplification. At the same time, there are no prospects for such an increase, unfortunately.

Worse, while Russia places emphasis on air defenses in the west, that emphasis does not erase the fact that NATO can overwhelm those air defenses even as air defenses in the east are inadequate against the lesser Chinese air power.

If Putin's hostility actually does lead to a war with NATO, Russia will need to threaten nuclear escalation very quickly before Russia's air defenses are crushed, allowing NATO to savage Russian ground and naval power in the west.

European Russia should be a safe rear area for Russia where air defense needs are minimal.

There are no prospects for Russia to fix the eastern air defense problem because Putin has created a threat from NATO where none existed before. The persistent idea that Putin is a strategic genius rather than Russia's own worst enemy puzzles me immensely.

Putin had best pray that Russia's elites and people don't notice how badly Putin effed up royally.

This tumble could be symbolic, no?

Have a super sparkly day.