Russian and Chinese interests conflict in many important areas. Is it true that Russia is ignoring its interests by loudly proclaiming friendship with China?
Despite these numerous threats, why is Russia still choosing a close alliance with China in various areas? To start with, Russia believes it does not have much of a choice; Russia is a fraction of China’s size economically, and its population is just one tenth of China’s. In military terms, comparing active personnel and military equipment, Russia is not as far behind.
Nevertheless, Russia can ill afford a military confrontation with China along its long land border, given that its military budget is only one third that of China’s. Russia also knows that China could scale up its military rather quickly if needed both in term of men and equipment because of its economic resources.
The author sees Putin running a short-run survival strategy while China's Xi has a long run view. And that Russia will wake up at some point to the threat.
One, you know my view on China's so-called long-range thinking superiority.
And two, Russia is certainly focused on the short run gap in power between Russia and China in light of the Chinese potential to threaten Russia's Far East. In my view, Russia is appeasing China in the hope they can rebuild their military without provoking China; and that Russian hostility toward NATO is possibly designed to conceal that Russian appeasement of a more powerful China.
Given the bad and declining state of Russia's defense industry, Russia clearly didn't buy enough time to be capable of dealing with China with that treaty muting Chinese territorial claims on Russia that expires in 2021.
What price will China demand to renew it? Will China compel Russia's "turn to the East" policy to include accepting Chinese aid and trade that simply allows China to penetrate Russia's Far East and gain a dominant position there? Although that author thinks the Chinese military threat is minor and that China benefits Russia. I'm not in that camp. Although if that author is correct, Russia has more opportunity to break with China, right?
Will Russia at some point realize that they risk a two-front war with their pointless confrontation with NATO that lacks the ability and interest in attacking Russia? Will Russia realize that having European Russia as a secure rear area is the smart thing to have with a rising China in their east?
And without such a peace with NATO, even Russia's Mini-Me firewall Putin that has ordered [I noticed this link was dead by chance and found a good link] to mimic China's Great Fire Wall can't forever hide the fact that Putin is effing things up royally.
But if Russia could get America and China to fight a major war, that's a bit of salvation for Russia in the correlation of forces with both of us, no? But barring that, Russia needs friendship with America.
China must be amazed at how well the false charges of Trump-Russian collusion serve to keep Russia from making peace with NATO. I won't indulge in fantasies that China engineered this given that Russia was just being Russia in that 2016 interference.
