The American sanctions that kicked back in last November were designed well. They’ve hit Iran’s biggest industries, especially the oil sector, and have been slowly producing devastating effects. In January, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that Iran is facing its toughest economic situation in 40 years, and that the United States was squarely to blame.
My first thought was "uh oh." In the Iran-Iraq War the Iranians knew that they were being starved of funds by the oil war against them, which consisted of Saudi-driven lower prices and Iraqi air attacks on oil exports. In time, this may have led the Iranians to lash out at sea contrary to their interests and spark combat with American forces in the Gulf.
I went to look for my long Iran-Iraq War post and discovered I'd apparently had the same "uh oh" reaction in December:
As I've said, while economic sanctions are considered an alternative to war, if sanctions are really effective the target of the sanctions will see them as little different than kinetic attacks and may consider kinetics in response. ...
If our oil sanctions really do start to bite deep without Iran able to significantly evade the sanctions, Iran will consider military/terrorist options in response.
Does Iran know that they can't beat America any more or less than they knew in 1988?
I'd keep our capital ships out of the Persian Gulf for now and carefully investigate the death of our 5th Fleet commander in Bahrain.
UPDATE: Iran's chief nutball Rouhani repeats the longstanding Iranian threat:
"If one day they want to prevent the export of Iran's oil, then no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf," he said.
Be careful out there.
Don't think Iran won't wage war on us in Iraq. They've done it before:
“During Operation Iraqi Freedom, DoD assessed that at least 603 U.S. personnel deaths in Iraq were the result of Iran-backed militants,” Navy Cmdr. Sean Robertson, a Pentagon spokesman, said in an email.
“These casualties were the result of explosively formed penetrators (EFP), other improvised explosive devices (IED), improvised rocket-assisted munitions (IRAM), rockets, mortars, rocket-propelled grenades (RPG), small-arms, sniper, and other attacks in Iraq," Robertson said.
This is an increase in the past estimate.
And the Iranians don't like it that we have troops in Iraq:
"You must make sure that the Americans withdraw their troops from Iraq as soon as possible because expelling them has become difficult whenever they have had a long military presence in a country," Khamenei was quoted as saying [in Iranian state media].
The one good thing about our departure in 2011 is that it proved we'd leave when asked. And then the Iraqis paid the price with the rise of ISIL.
We need to be careful with our ships and bases in the Gulf; our troops in Iraq need to be tight, with nobody going slack on base security; we need to keep a close eye on the pro-Iran Iraqi militias; and we must make sure CENTCOM air, ground, and naval forces are ready to counter any Iranian move.
Because the Iranians aren't finished trying to increase our body count.
UPDATE: I mentioned in the last data dump that we may designate Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. An Iranian general threatened the lives of American troops if that designation should take place.
UPDATE: So what will Iran do now?
President Donald Trump announced Monday that the U.S. is designating Iran's Revolutionary Guard a "foreign terrorist organization," in an effort to increase pressure on the country that could have significant diplomatic implications in the Middle East.
Let's not let down our guard out there.
UPDATE: Iran warned our fleet not to get close to their boats.
I'm fully on board the idea that nothing of theirs should get within a certain distance of our ships and be allowed to continue floating.
