Russia Will Agree to Peace With Japan When it is Strong Enough to Contain China

Russia needs a peace treaty with Japan to be able to pivot against China to protect Russia's imperial conquest of Chinese territory from a rising China out to reverse a "century of humiliation" at the hands of Europeans. But not if it reveals Russia's intention to contain China before it is ready. Is Russia strong enough to do that?

This issue keeps bouncing around:

Little has been made public about the details of the [March 5 Russian-Japanese peace treaty] discussions, yet it is widely reported in the Japanese media that Abe is aiming to conclude an outline agreement when Putin visits Japan for the Group of 20 summit in June. What would such a peace agreement include and can it be delivered?

The first priority for the Japanese side is that the document addresses the countries’ dispute over the Northern Territories, which are known in Russia as the Southern Kurils. It is these disputed islands that have prevented the conclusion of a peace treaty due to Japan’s refusal to sign an agreement until the status of the territory is resolved.

It is possible that Abe will agree to something that leaves territory in Russian hands just to be known as the leader who ended the state of war with Russia that has existed since 1945. Would that be so bad for Japan if it could flip Russia to oppose China? That sounds like a good deal to me.

Russia would really like to set the precedent that it can keep land it conquered. Of course, Russia already admitted that they should give back land to China in the Far East. A counter-precedent with Japan would be helpful, no? Because I have no doubt China will reassert their claims to Russia's Far Eastern territory taken from China in the 19th century.

And if Japan and Russia agree to a treaty, then Russia's pivot to the Far East could openly deal with China rather than pretend it is focused on Japan. Is Russia's conventional force level in the Far East, ostensibly aimed at Japan (and America indirectly), strong enough if focused on China to deter China?

Of course, Russia might be too weak to abandon the fiction that they are really worried about Japan. If that is true, I'd say a peace treaty won't be part of Abe's legacy. And so far, Russia seems to agree:

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that talks with Japan aimed at clinching a World War Two peace treaty between the two countries and ending a territorial dispute over a chain of islands in the Pacific could go on for years and were complex.

Perhaps the Russians just want to keep the talks warm until they judge the correlation of forces between China and Russia doesn't suck nearly as much as it has since 1991.