Research organization RAND has run dozens of wargames simulating major conflict scenarios in what it describes as Russia and China’s “backyards.” The wargames suggest that the U.S. forces in those locations would get attacked by a vast array of both conventional and cyber weapons.
RAND Senior Defense Analyst David Ochmanek discussed the simulations at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) in Washington D.C. last week. “In our games, where we fight China or Russia … blue gets its a** handed to it, not to put too fine a point on it,” he said, during a panel discussion. Blue denotes U.S. forces in the simulations.
Calm down. If the scenarios are "in Russia's and China's 'backyards'" of course they have the advantage. They are close and we are far. They are much more powerful than their close targets.
Do the math. We get our ass handed to us.
Since 2014 I've noted this reality in the Baltic states; and I've long argued than China could invade and capture Taiwan before we can gather forces if the Chinese are willing to risk the casualties needed to do it. In those scenarios RAND wargamed Russia can't lose in the short run although China could lose. That is consistent with my back-of-the-envelope judgments.
But then we get the chance to fight back. The key is surviving the initial blow without suffering crippling losses and then gathering forces to counter-attack.
And for Taiwan scenario, that means Taiwan is the key actor which has to arm up despite China's vast size advantage. A 100-mile wide anti-tank ditch is nothing to discount. So this is good news:
The Trump administration has approved the sale of dozens of new F-16 jet fighters to Taiwan, the first major warplane sale to the island state in nearly 30 years.
The interagency decision, to be announced in the near future, authorized the sale of up to 66 F-16V jet fighters at an estimated cost of $13 billion, according to administration officials familiar with internal discussions'
This situation is nothing new. It doesn't mean we shouldn't work the problem--of course we should. But don't panic. The issue of who holds whose ass remains in doubt until the end.
