Unintended Consequences

Let me note a few footnotes on unintended consequences--good and bad--from the 1991 Persian Gulf War that affected the Iraq War begun in 2003.

One, although our forces did experience happy Shia Iraqis glad to see Saddam defeated in 2003, our decision in 1991 to stand aside in the post-war uprising while Saddam pounded the Shias into submission did leave a reservoir of suspicion and anger within the Shia population that harmed our efforts (and that arguably lasted until 2004 when the Baathists aligned with the foreign jihadis, which forced the Shias to fight with us).

Two, the long-post war inspections system part of the 1990-1991 war ceasefire actually did eliminate Saddam's WMD (although as I've noted, the Army study says Saddam was husbanding resources to resume WMD research and production). That made our 2003 invasion much less costly in lives. Had we continued the war in 1991 by advancing on Baghdad, I think Saddam surely would have fired his chemical weapons at our troops.

And three, during the gap from 1991 to 2003, Saddam stopped being a secular regime and actively sought the support of Islamist radicalism to bolster the legitimacy of his rule shaken by his massive military defeat in 1991. That made our post-war after 2003 far more difficult than a post-war in 1991 would have faced.

So I remain unsure of how to answer the charge sometimes leveled that if only we'd driven on Baghdad in 1991 we would have avoided the 2003 war. Maybe we would have avoided problems. But maybe we would have just had different--and worse--problems.

This started as a digression in another post. I figured it should be cut as a too-long distraction but didn't want to kill it.