Two main factors combine to make the sale of F-35s to Turkey a credible threat to American national security. First, on the immediate and kinetic front, Ankara’s continued efforts to acquire and deploy Russian-made integrated surface-to-air missile systems could give Russian engineers and radar systems operators key insight into the radar cross section and signals signature of the F-35. Second, on a broader and more strategically oriented scale, further supporting Turkey’s military advancement could backfire should the country slip further toward authoritarianism. ...
In light of Turkey’s increased relationship with Russia, commitment to purchasing Russian weapon systems, and rapid devolution into a modern autocracy, Washington’s best interest lies in denying the sale of further F-35 airframes to Turkey. The F-35 is critical to the future of American and NATO air superiority.
I hope we are playing for time since it will be close to two years before the first Turkish F-35 reaches Turkey (training to use it is taking place in America). In that time (as I noted in this data dump, for example) we can work around Turkey's current position in the supply chain and maintenance infrastructure so a cancellation of the sale won't hurt our actual friends and allies who have purchased the plane.
And so we can get alternate bases to the Incirlik air base in Turkey (perhaps on Cyprus?) and--I hope to God this is already done--remove our nuclear warheads from Turkey.
Or maybe before the planes are scheduled to be delivered to Turkey the horse will sing and Turkey will get rid of Erdogan and return to being a reliable American ally that isn't on a path to being an Islamist Hell Hole.
Or could we possibly sell a "monkey model" to Turkey, as I ask here?
The bottom line is that there is no way in Hell that Turkey--notwithstanding its formal position as a NATO ally--should get its hand on the backbone of American air power for the next generation.
Indeed, I think that selling "no further" F-35s to Turkey is insufficient. We should deny Turkey the F-35s already bought and damn any law suits that Turkey might file. If necessary, each and every one should have a horrible hangar fire that turns them into slag and--darn the luck--Turkey's batch has to be added to the end of the multi-decade production run.
