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Monday, January 21, 2019

When You Assume, You Make a Smoldering Slag Out of You and Me

Via Instapundit, Popular Mechanics looks at missile defense in light of a recent Pentagon review on the subject.

The article notes a possible space-based element of a layered defense that would include the new idea of F-35s shooting at missiles on the way up during the launch phase. But, the article notes, that is difficult because it requires a constant patrol over the launch sites to catch the missiles in that vulnerable early stage:

According to the review, the F-35 “has a capable sensor system that can detect the infrared signature of a boosting missile, and its computers can identify the threatening missile’s location." In the future, the F-35 could “be equipped with a new or modified interceptor capable of shooting down adversary ballistic missiles in their boost phase and could be surged rapidly to hotspots.”

As was the case with Reagan's Star Wars, however, shooting down missiles is easier said than done. Ballistic missiles may be slow at launch, but they accelerate rapidly and the window for intercept is narrow. F-35s would have to fly very close to the launch location, placing them near enemy air defenses. To be close enough to strike in time, fighters must be constantly patrolling over a suspected launch location.

The "new" idea isn't new and the difficulty is easy to solve if you shift how you look at the problem.

First, nothing we could afford to build with anticipated technology could stop a mass strike as Russia or China could deliver. Deterrence is the only way to prevent such an attack.

Or friendship could prevent an attack, of course. We don't worry about Britain, France, India, or Israel attacking us. I'll reserve judgment on Pakistan, our black sheep ally.

But back to the F-35. I raised the capability back in 2008 (with some parts reaching back to 2007 if you follow the link trail), and I heard about the capability from Strategypage.

And while the F-35 does provide, because of its stealth, a theoretical option to loiter above a hostile nuclear power without sophisticated air defense detection systems, the work-around to the limited patrol time over the target is that the F-35 provides that shoot-down capability during a preemptive strike on the nuclear missile launch sites.

The purpose of the F-35s would be to provide an early line of defense in a defense-in-depth against leakers that survive the preemptive attack or to be able to attack missiles from launch sites we didn't know about.

Change what you assume and the limitations are less important.

So there you go.