Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido declared himself interim president on Wednesday, winning the backing of Washington and many Latin American nations and prompting socialist Nicolas Maduro, who has led the oil-rich nation since 2013, to break relations with the United States.
U.S. President Donald Trump formally recognized Guaido shortly after his announcement and praised his plan to hold elections. That was swiftly followed by similar statements from Canada and a slew of right-leaning Latin American governments, including Venezuela's neighbors Brazil and Colombia.
Is this a symbol of the end of Maduro and his socialist regime?
In a potent symbol of Venezuelan anger, demonstrators in the southern city of Puerto Ordaz on Tuesday toppled a statue of late socialist leader Hugo Chavez. They broke the statue in half and dangled part of it from a bridge.
Maduro has relied on loyal armed support willing to abuse and kill for the inept autocrat. Is that changing?
Maduro has granted bonuses to rank-and-file soldiers and placed generals in key government posts, including at the helm of the state-run oil company, seeking to cement their support.
But with Venezuela sliding into economic collapse, there have been signs in recent years of fraying in military support[.]
And if more people openly resist Maduro, will the security forces have the capacity to battle protesters on a large scale? When the rationalization that only a few are causing the unrest is clearly false?
So far the death toll in this wave of unrest is not high:
A Venezuelan monitoring group says at least a dozen people have been killed by gunfire in a wave of anti-government unrest rocking Venezuela, where a young opposition leader and socialist President Nicolas Maduro both claim to be chief of state.
But the opposition isn't rudderless now:
Since late fall 2018, nationwide opposition to Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro has shown signs of increasing coordination -- emerging links connecting angry anti-Maduro street demonstrations, domestic political preparations by opposition leaders and anti-regime international diplomatic initiatives that portray Maduro as the vicious thug he is.
So a small dose of violence might not be enough to suppress this latest round of unrest.
Is a revolution beginning (tip to Instapundit)?
And is it too late for Maduro to lash out at a foreign enemy in an effort to rally his security forces against all of his enemies, foreign and domestic?
UPDATE: Guaido has gained some international support while the usual rogue suspects back Maduro:
In a united and seemingly coordinated front, the U.S., Canada and some Latin American and European countries announced that they supported Guaido's claim to the presidency.
But Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Cuba and Turkey have voiced their backing for Maduro's government.
What will the Venezuelan people and the security forces do now?
UPDATE: If there is foreign intervention, I'd guess the United States would play a supporting logistics and surveillance role for Latin American states to occupy ports and key airports to allow humanitarian aid to flow in and to block any shipment of arms from the rogues to support Maduro.
UPDATE: Venezuela ordered American diplomats out and we refused to go:
Speaking to supporters outside the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, socialist leader Maduro said he would give U.S. diplomatic personnel 72 hours to leave Venezuela, which is suffering from a hyperinflationary economic collapse. ...
The U.S. State Department said in a statement that it would not remove American diplomats because it did not recognize the Maduro regime as the government of Venezuela[.]
So that's another reason we might send in forces. Trump won't allow a repeat of the September 11, 2012 Benghazi attack. If Maduro attacks our embassy I assume Marine reaction forces are moving to staging areas if they aren't there already; and that the ready brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division is breaking out the maps of Caracas. And 1st Marine Division, too, although they would take longer to deploy.
UPDATE: As the slow-motion disaster rolls along, remember that if President Bush actually had staged a coup back in 2002 against Hugo Chavez, the founder of the wreckage of modern Venezuela now being destroyed by Maduro's inept cruelty, that we'd have spent the last 17 years hearing the Left screech about how Bushitler had deprived Venezuelans of the wonderful socialism Hugo promised--unaware of the alternate history timeline we now live in.
Sadly there is no Wayback Machine to prevent the disaster we have today.
UPDATE: The high command remains with Maduro:
Venezuela's powerful military high command threw its weight behind President Nicolas Maduro on Thursday as opposition leader Juan Guaido pressed a direct challenge to his authority with the backing of the United States and key Latin American allies.
That's not too shocking. But what about the mid-level officers as well as the NCOs and privates at the pointy end who would need to open fire on a large scale if protests snowball?
UPDATE: More (tip to Instapundit):
Venezuela’s National Guard, whose support for President Nicolás Maduro has endured despite the country’s dire economic and humanitarian conditions, is beginning to show signs of a break. A budding insurgency within the force was quashed over the weekend, but not before the dozens of protesting guards used 21st century weapons - videos and social media posts stating they didn’t recognize Maduro as president – to rally support for their cause.
If the signs of breaking increase, will one of the high command decide to step in front of the parade just out of self interest if not for the sake of the people?
And are all of the high command looking at each other to make sure they aren't the second one to step in?
UPDATE: Maduro has ordered Venezuelan diplomats to come come; and basically threatened our diplomats who are staying despite Maduro's order to leave:
Maduro warned that if U.S. officials "have any sense" they will pull out their own diplomats from the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, rather than defying his order for them to leave.
Since we don't recognize Maduro as the legitimate president, we can hardly consider his orders valid.
UPDATE: We are ordering "non-emergency" staff home. I have no idea what that means. Although I assume emergency personnel includes any Marine embassy guards there.
The U.S. also advised citizens to get the heck out of Dodge.
UPDATE: More. Let's hope socialism is finally rejected there.
And to those who say that socialism doesn't mean what has happened to Venezuela as it crumbles today, do you actually think that today's Venezuela is the intended result of socialism established in Venezuela decades ago?
Celebrities and leftists here celebrated the path they were on as a miracle, recall.
Venezuela today is the logical outcome of establishing socialism in even a prosperous country with an educated people and abundant natural resources.
UPDATE: If you think it can't get worse, Russia is getting more involved:
Private military contractors who do secret missions for Russia flew into Venezuela in the past few days to beef up security for President Nicolas Maduro in the face of U.S.-backed opposition protests, according to two people close to them.
A third source close to the Russian contractors also told Reuters there was a contingent of them in Venezuela, but could not say when they arrived or what their role was.
Their role is to get more Venezuelans killed. Sadly, Post-Soviet Russia measures their global stature by how many people they can get killed in unrest they encourage.
UPDATE: And remember, what Guaido has done is not a coup:
Guaidó did not "declare himself" president of the South American country. He assumed the presidency of Venezuela as constitutionally mandated. ...
When Juan Guaidó stepped on that stage on Wednesday, he was not "declaring himself" president, rather, as the highest-ranking democratically elected official in the country, he was assuming the responsibility for steering the country back to democracy.
Maduro is the one who has staged a coup by undermining institutions and hanging on to power. Guaido deserves our vocal support.
UPDATE: A mid-level Venezuelan officer from their embassy sided with Guaido. We'll see if that's a one-off or the beginning of a trend.
Major European powers told Maduro to announce a new election within eight days or they would recognize Guaido as president. Ah, nuance.
