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Friday, January 18, 2019

Easing into War?

Is Israel getting ready to hammer Iran's Hezbollah pawn?

Israel's new military chief took office Tuesday, pledging to lead a "lethal, efficient and innovative army" into the future as it faces grave challenges along its borders.

Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi's inauguration comes shortly after the military's announcement that it has successfully completed its operation to destroy a network of cross-border tunnels dug by the militant group Hezbollah, stretching from Lebanon into Israel, and as it appears to be dropping its ambiguity over hundreds of strikes it had carried out against Iranian forces in Syria in recent years.

A new Israeli army recovered from its disastrous performance in the 2006 campaign against Hezbollah could punch deep into Lebanon while Hezbollah is still deeply engaged in Syria.

Which this hints at (from the initial article):

Israel has long called for a crackdown on the Iran-backed Hezbollah — a heavily armed militia that functions as a mini-army and is believed to possess an arsenal of some 150,000 rockets that can reach nearly all of Israel. In recent years, Hezbollah has been bogged down in fighting in Syria on behalf of Syrian President Bashar Assad's government. But with that war winding down, Israeli security officials fear Hezbollah is refocusing its attention on Israel.

Remember, Iron Dome cannot protect Israel for very long.

Locking down the border with Lebanon is necessary for that--which the end of the tunnel mission establishes--and the strike admission helps establish that Israel is already at war with Iran, making a ground campaign against Hezbollah a logical next step rather than something new.

But I've been trying to connect the dots on this presumed mission since not too many years after I concluded Israel screwed the pooch in 2006.

UPDATE: And Lebanon is signaling that it is basically on Hezbollah's side:

Lebanon’s Caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil called on Friday for reinstating Syria into the Arab League.

I had hoped a war against Hezbollah would allow Lebanon to reassert control over areas Hezbollah now physically controls.

But by taking the Assad-Iran-Hezbollah line, Lebanon gives Israel no reason to avoid hitting Lebanese targets if it should go into Lebanon in force to hammer Hezbollah before it can refocus on Israel when it is allowed to disengage from the costly fight to prop up Assad.