This author believes Russia can be stopped from their aggression in the west with an effort to break it up:
Although Moscow has failed to modernize its economy to be globally competitive, the Kremlin excels in one domain — disinformation — through which it portrays the country as a rising power on a level with the U.S.
In reality, Russia is a declining state that disguises its internal infirmities with external offensives. Russia’s economy is stagnating. According to World Bank statistics for 2017, Russia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita ranks 62nd in the world.
Even the defense budget is shrinking and barely reaches a tenth of the U.S. Through a combination of low fossil fuel prices, infrastructural decay, pervasive corruption and Western financial sanctions, state revenues are declining, living standards are falling, social conflicts are intensifying and regional disquiet is mounting.
Although economic performance alone is insufficient to measure susceptibility to collapse, rising social, ethnic and regional pressures indicate that Russia is heading toward fragmentation.
I'm on board the idea that Russia could fragment some more. And indeed, I do think that Putin is effing up royally, which might have a sad end for Russia.
Even if we helped Russia avoid that fate as hard as we could, Russian paranoia might still lead them to conclude we had something to do with their end.
I'd rather contain nuclear-armed Russia with minimal effort and hope their circular firing squad mentality defeats them one more time without dragging America into a murder-suicide pact that simply makes China smile.
UPDATE: The Senate voted to block Trump relaxation of sanction on three Russian companies. It is a small thing and I'm not sure what to make of it.
Was Trump justified in giving the Russians hope that relations can be restored? Did the Senate screw up a minor opening that would be nice to start, to avoid focusing too much on a dying but dangerous Russia instead of rising--for now--China? And, if Russia is not done fragmenting, it would be nice if the paranoid nuclear-armed Russians didn't have reason to think we have something to do with their continued fall.
Or is Senate rejection useful to Trump who can say to Putin, "Hey, I tried! Give me something more!" Sometimes Congress can by design or chance serve as "bad cop" to a president's "good cop."
UPDATE: In a timely post, Strategypage reviews the clusterf*ck of Russia's economy and foreign adventures, including the Donbas region where Russia has to replace worn out local rebels with their own troops despite not being able to afford the cash or casualties. The war has become the bleeding ulcer I wanted it to be from the beginning. Strategypage notes that it is amazing that the Russians think there is a Western plot to wreck Russia when the Russians do such a good job of that themselves.
Seriously, Donbas is hardly the poster boy for some magical "hybrid warfare" that has attracted way too much study in the West.
How long before some Russians wonder if Putin is Trump's pawn to destroy Russia?
