Ukraine's limited martial law is being matched by mobilization:
Ukraine's president announced a partial call-up of reservists for training amid tensions with Russia, saying Monday that the country needs to beef up its defenses to counter the threat of a Russian invasion.
Not that this is outrageous given that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since February 2014 when Russian forces began their subliminal invasion of Crimea.
The commander of Ukraine's military said that the Russian threat is the greatest it has been since 2014, pointing to tank deployments as a piece of evidence:
General Viktor Muzhenko gestured to a series of satellite images which he said showed the presence of Russian T-62 M tanks stationed 18 km (11 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
They had more than doubled to 250 from 93 machines within the space of two weeks from mid September to Oct 1.
Of course, T-62s are ancient vehicles. The latest Military Balance in my possession (the 2012 edition) doesn't credit Russia with having T-62s in active service. Would Russia really pull them out of storage for mobilized reserve units?
Here's all you probably want to know about the T-62.
Or that reported fact is simply wrong. If I had to guess I'd say this refers to T-72s.
If the war is going to heat up on the land, it shouldn't be that shocking for a war approaching 5 years in duration. Ukraine naturally wants its territory back.
And if Ukraine faces slow strangulation at sea, why should Ukraine go along with Russia's desire to limit Russian casualties on the land front?
On the other hand, why would Ukraine escalate the war before the winter begins which gives Russia the chance to shut off energy exports to Ukraine?
Does Ukraine have a stockpile to last to spring? Alternative sources from America?
Or does Ukraine want to take advantage of the fact that Russia would have to shut off the gas to Europe as collateral damage to shutting down the pipelines that go to and through Ukraine to Europe? Might Ukraine prefer trying this gambit before Russia can bypass Ukraine to send energy to Germany?
And is Ukraine's seemingly odd request to Germany to send naval forces to the Black Sea related to this thinking?
Just in case I should link my old invasion speculation post that has gotten some hits lately.
UPDATE: It might be T-62s. Strategypage notes a Russian build up on Ukraine's border and says part of it is redeploying the equipment of reserve units. So those reserve units could have T-62s.
