Pages

Friday, December 14, 2018

Implausible Deniability

I'm on board the sentiment that the West should help Ukraine defeat Russian aggression, but just stop with the "hybrid" warfare hyperventilating:

Over the past four and a half years, Ukrainian society has grown grimly familiar with a unique brand of creeping Russian aggression that has been carefully calibrated to cause maximum damage while avoiding the crippling costs implicit in a more conventional campaign. Russia’s hybrid hostilities have extended far beyond the country’s thinly veiled military intervention in eastern Ukraine, with Moscow also making use of targeted assassinations, cyberattacks, trade embargoes, and disinformation campaigns to keep Ukraine permanently destabilized and to prevent the country’s final escape from the Kremlin’s sphere of influence. Throughout it all, the one constant has been a desire to disguise Russian involvement. This emphasis on plausible deniability made Russia’s November 25 naval attack on three Ukrainian vessels a watershed moment. For the first time since the start of the conflict in spring 2014, Russian forces operating under the Russian flag had openly attacked Ukraine.

At best, Russia's invasion has been a "subliminal war" as I called it early on (or "slothkrieg" as I also called it) if you have to tag it with a new name--the "hybrid" war junk is nonsense as far as I'm concerned.

And it just astounds me that Russia's invasions can be described as having "plausible deniability." Who on Earth doesn't know--and didn't know from the start--that Russia obviously invaded Ukraine?

Help Ukraine send body bags back to Russia. That's how we defeat Russia's aggression.

Remember, the Russians are not longer the people willing to endure heavy casualties for the glory of their leader.

UPDATE: NATO is still helping Ukraine:

NATO will supply Ukraine’s military with secure communication equipment this month, its head Jens Stoltenberg told President Petro Poroshenko at a meeting on Thursday called to discuss an escalation of Kiev’s conflict with Moscow.

Ukraine is not (yet) in NATO. But if Ukraine falls to the Russian in fact or in vassal status, NATO will be on the frontline in the Balkans.

UPDATE: And that current rear area on the land front needs prodding to provide military capabilities.