That's what this analysis contends:
Russia is taking overt steps towards open conflict with Ukraine. Russia has been waging a covert war against Ukraine using proxy separatist forces in eastern Ukraine since 2014. The Russian military is now preparing its forces for direct military involvement. The Kremlin is reinforcing ground, naval, and air elements in its Southern Military District - the command likely responsible for managing its ongoing war in Ukraine. Moscow may calculate that the international community will not meaningfully respond if the visibility of its role in the war now increases.
Is Russia really willing to endure the casualties to achieve a major objective?
And if Russia is planning this, what about all the talk about how Russia was brilliantly conducting a "hybrid war" to create "frozen conflicts" that benefit Russia?
If that was so brilliant, why is Russia abandoning that and planning to wage open warfare against Ukraine?
Of course, I can believe Putin might escalate--believing he can get a short and glorious war that avoids casualties--because I think little of the analysis that attributes brilliance to Putin's foreign policy towards the West.
Besides, if the West is finally going to stop going along with the fiction that Russia isn't fighting Ukraine in the Donbas, why wouldn't Russia escalate before Western sanctions follow that apparent revelation?
Also, given limited Russian resources I've felt Ukraine's real front line is in Syria. And if the Syrian front is winding down with an Assad victory, Russia will be able to return their focus to Ukraine.
Of course, the latest signs of war could mean nothing more than past indications. Or maybe Russia judges that the West will think the preparations mean nothing and thus get the element of surprise. Hard to say.
I hope Ukraine is prepared to bleed a Russian ground invasion in the east and is prepared to bombard Russia's Crimean base area and otherwise sink Russian warships with land-based missiles and aircraft, plus a naval mine campaign off of Russian-controlled ports.
UPDATE: Strategypage has more. Read it all. Mainly I took away that the AstroTurf rebels in the Donbas are losing their stomach for the fight and Russians pretending to be Ukrainians have to take up the slack. And yes, Russia has been building up forces for the last year along the border.
For what? Is the Sea of Azov Russia's escalation to squeeze Ukraine (and what will the Ukrainians with OSCE observers on a new naval mission to the Sea of Azov face?) or do the Russians want to take advantage of the winding down of Russia's Syria expedition to renew a mobile ground war against Ukraine?
And I'd like to point out again that people called Russia's invasion of the Donbas--which they denied doing despite obviously invading--brilliant because it created a "frozen conflict." Well, people at the pointy end of the Russian stick aren't frozen and they aren't pleased to be dying for what they have.
