Are We Seeing What is Really Happening?

Are we really giving Iran a victory in Syria because of our decision to withdraw our 2,000 troops from Syria?

I've long said that while I would not send in 150,000 American troops to overthrow Assad in Syria--because ultimately Israel will deal with western Syria--that when we had the chance we should have taken our shot at a long-time enemy who deserved to feel our wrath after Assad killed a lot of our troops in Iraq by funneling in jihadis recruited around the world through Syria into Iraq.

But we blew that chance when the anti-Assad rebellion was at its strongest and before jihadis dominated it. And after the rise of the ISIL caliphate led us to intervene in Syria we failed to build a rebel force in eastern Syria that we could have backed after defeating ISIL. The Kurds, I said, would never be a force to march on Damascus.

And I was uncomfortable with American troops in eastern Syria post-ISIL caliphate mission without an idea of what they would do despite our interest in protecting the Kurds who fought with us, our interest in blocking Iranian supply lines to Hezbollah, and our interest in preventing eastern Syria from being a sanctuary for jihadis to threaten Iraq.

I was uncomfortable because we could face an attack that leads to a large loss of American lives that prompts a rapid retreat and defeat that encourages enemies. See the Marines Beirut Barracks bombing and the Battle of Mogadishu for examples of that worry.

I hope that we have alternate means to US troops in eastern Syria to protect the Kurds (and our reputation for standing by allies), block Iran's supply line, and protect Iraq.

Of course, defeating Iran's mullah regime at home would go a long way to achieving those objectives.

And if Israel really takes Hezbollah down in a serious way as I've been writing about, that disarms Iran's forward outpost in Lebanon.

And I've noted other countries are involved in eastern Syria to block Iran and Assad. Are they enough to continue the mission without our troops but backed by our air power?

We shall see whether this decision to withdraw from Syria is a victory for Iran or a means of fighting Iran more directly while keeping our forces away from Iranian retaliation.

If so, expect our carrier in the Persian Gulf to clear out first.

UPDATE: Many of the American forces being pulled out of Syria will "apparently" remain in Iraq to protect the border. Which is good. Under Bush 43 our strikes into Syria to hit jihadis were rare. The precedent has been set by Obama that we can do it at will now.

UPDATE: We are past the chance of getting a post-Assad Syria, We can still work to keep Assad weaker by pursuing a post-Syria Assad--which in many ways arrived.

Work the problem.

UPDATE: Turkey says it has no need to enter Mambij if the Kurds leave; the Kurds want Syria to enter Manbij and the Syrians are willing, and Turkey warns the Kurds not to invite the Syrians to enter Manbij.

If the Kurds get some form of autonomy within Syria, that is enough to protect the Kurds from Assad while not causing problems to our other interests that require no Kurdish state unilaterally declared.