Bay discusses China's preparations for war (whether that means they want that military for war or coercion is another matter), and notes this important factor about China's coastal missile arsenal that falls under the term anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) designed to keep our fleet away from China:
A2/AD has a coercive political goal: Seeding doubts in Asia that the mighty U.S. will come to the rescue should China decide to launch an offensive to grab more territory -- like the Strait of Malacca, which connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Doubting U.S. resolve makes Asian countries susceptible to diplomatic intimidation.
I've mentioned that we need to match China lest our allies go wobbly.
And if we don't want to match China's military close to China, a distant blockade of China as the alternative leaves many allies on the wrong side of the distant blockade line--which will erode our alliances that allow us to face an increasingly powerful China.
Bay notes that our trade disputes with China could be a salvo in a struggle to deny China the resources to build up their military power.
China has long benefited from the American belief that prosperity would fuel democracy and peace rather than autocracy and aggression. Trump's apparent dumping of that long-held belief has taken China by surprise. America is now working to disengage from trade with China on terms that greatly benefit China out of proportion to what America gains. If China won't amend those trade terms, America will try to trade elsewhere.
Will this weaken the aggressive and autocratic China that trade-based prosperity has created?
