U.S. sanctions against Iran will have "severe consequences" for the world order, the Islamic republic said on Tuesday, days before new sanctions on Tehran's oil exports take effect.
Washington reintroduced sanctions against Iran's currency trade, metals and auto sectors in August after it pulled out of a multinational 2015 deal that lifted sanctions in return for limits on Iran's nuclear program.
What consequences is Iran planning? And for "world order," too.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. In general sanctions don't work to change behavior because they just aren't harsh enough.
And when sanctions do get harsh enough, the target may believe the "peaceful" sanctions inflict damage equivalent to wartime attacks? If that is the case, the target may believe responding to harsh sanctions with violence is fully justified.
So again, what are the Iranians implying they might do?
As an aside, the article says Iran has abided by the 2015 nuclear agreement and that the IAEA has confirmed it. Both statements are misleading. The agreement is horrible and limited, making it worthless for stopping Iran from going nuclear; and the IAEA has such limited means to enforce the deal that their verification of Iranian compliance is meaningless.
And of course, even if the deal worked and the IAEA was enforcing it, it expires and leaves Iran free to pursue nuclear weapons without international scrutiny.
UPDATE: Israel continues cyber warfare against Iran while renewed American sanctions start to bite. The war is on and if Iran can't respond with cyber or evade the sanctions, they'll fight with whatever weapons they have--proxies and terrorism--if they suffer from the cyber and sanctions too much.
And while the Iranians are generally level-headed enough not to do something too stupid like directly attack America, in the Iran-Iraq War the Iranians eventually screwed up under the pressure of Iraqi attacks on Iranian oil exports and pulled America into in the Tanker War resulting in the cream of the Iranian navy being sent to the bottom of the Persian Gulf by U.S. forces. Could Iran have a moment of stupid and attack one of our warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz? Or try to block the strait?
UPDATE: Having decided to defeat Iran rather than enable their regional drive for nuclear-backed hegemony, we are backtracking on sanctions (tip to Instapundit?
The Trump administration is poised to offer a series of major concessions to Iran that will let it escape key economic sanctions that the administration once vowed would kick back into force in the next several days, according to multiple U.S. officials and administration insiders familiar with the state of play.
Unless this is directed at American allies who may believe America will carry the load of resisting Iran without doing much heavy lifting, this makes no sense.
If that is the case, as America gets those allies back into the fight, the escape key will be turned back to the fully locked position.
