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Saturday, October 20, 2018

It's Dead, Jim

The Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty is dead.



This only makes sense:

John Bolton, US national security adviser, will meet Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, on Saturday in Moscow, amid reports that Washington will tell Russia it plans to quit a landmark nuclear weapons treaty.

Russia continues to violate it and the verification provisions expired long ago. It's a treaty in name only and if Russia wants to act like the treaty doesn't exist, we should just pronounce it formally dead.

The original treaty prevented America from stationing very effective nukes in Europe that would have played havoc with deep Soviet military targets. And now just as Russia acts like an aggressive nutjob against NATO, Russia provokes America into abandoning the treaty.

Let it go.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

UPDATE: More from Strategypage:

The American withdrawal announcement was in reaction of Russian violations of the treaty (like some versions of the new Iskander and RS-26 ballistic missiles) and violations of other important nuclear disarmament deals (like the 1994 one that got Ukraine to surrender its nukes in return for a Russian guarantee that it would never seek to annex all or part of the Ukraine). In addition China is not bound by the INF and producing weapons that violate it. Russia immediately denounced the Americans, who are sending senior negotiators to Russia to discuss the matter.

Russia sees the Americans leaving INF as a major setback because until now Russia has been able to violate several Cold War era arms reductions treaties with impunity as Russia sought to rebuild its empire using the excuse that NATO was conspiring to conquer, or contain, Russia.

I would like a treaty with Russia that limits theater missiles in Europe. Our major worry is China and their theater missiles that threaten our allies, fleet, and bases in the western Pacific. But a deal with Russia that only we obey is worse than no deal.

Although keep in mind that saying China has weapons that "violate" the treaty doesn't mean China is violating a treaty that they aren't part of--just that China is free to build weapons that America can't because of the treaty (and which Russia isn't supposed to build but is building).

And you will see that link again because the post is wide ranging with a lot of interesting news.