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Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Bolt from the Blue

Could Russia pull off a global Pearl Harbor against our fleet using missiles in shipping containers?

Translations from a Russian defense journal and from a secret Iranian military handbook suggest that Russia and Iran have developed a Pearl Harbor 2.0 plan to sink the entire U.S. Navy fleet as part of coordinated asymmetrical attacks against the United States and U.S. military bases around the world.

The plan is to launch Russian Kalibr cruise missiles from submarines, freighter ships, and Trojan Horse Club-K Container Missile System intermodal cargo “containers” that can be smuggled into U.S. ports and moved into the U.S. interior aboard trains and semi-trucks.

In 2015 the Russian journal “Natsionalnaya Oborona” (translation: National Defense) outlined a plan to “hit them in their ports” with Kalibr cruise missiles that could sink entire US Navy fleets docked in ports across the United States, Europe, and the Middle East.

Well, those containers are the basis of my The AFRICOM Queen suggestion published over two years ago for a modularized auxiliary cruiser that could drop off containers on the land for specific missions in the course of the mission. My specific suggestion was for a power projection platform for Army-centric missions but I noted the option could work for the Navy, too--which was my original notion.

It would be hard for Russia to pull off because the discovery of any single container with such missiles would expose the plan. And give America a chance to take apart a Russian missile and supporting equipment. Although if Russia infiltrates harbor operating companies they would have the access to smuggle in such missile-launching containers.

So this couldn't be something the Russians set up just in case a crisis requires that option. It would have to be part of a deliberate plan to initiate war against America as soon as the assets are in place.

I doubt this is terribly feasible on the scale described in the real world, but even if this wouldn't work as intended some parts might work. And something else might be added to that aspect to add to the destruction. To be fair, the plan calls for shore-based smuggled missile containers, containers on cargo ships, and submarine-launched missiles. So it isn't just smuggled containers.

Yet even if this is really just a localized threat to help the Russians carry out a regional mission by taking out the closest American Navy assets--remember that the actual Pearl Harbor attack was intended to knock out the regional American threat so that Japan could carry out their early war missions unchallenged by what the Japanese considered our key Pacific assets. This is a threat even if the global scope can't be achieved.

Which is why I think we should always take precautions against that kind of threat too many think is impossible. And as a bonus, in that late 2012 post I link to an earlier 2012 post on the Russian containerized missile that is the centerpiece of the Russian article's point.