Weekend Data Dump

Japan demonstrated its ability to retake small islands in the East China Sea should China invade them.

In addition to offering to pay to build a base for a permanently stationed American brigade in Poland, Poland is building up its military, including plans to create a fourth division to be based in the east. Poland's existing bases are located in the west, reflecting their Soviet role in sending forces to invade NATO.

Taiwan is not a bargaining chip to be given up for concessions from China on other matters. Damn straight. I didn't think that idea was up for discussion. The Taiwan question is really the China question. Tossing a small free nation to the mercy of a predatory dictatorship won't provide peace for our time in this era any more than it did in a past era. I sometimes think Taiwan wasted the 1996 crisis by not declaring independence when China lacked the ability to invade or deter American intervention. And I sometimes think that in a couple decades Taiwan will look back to today and regret not taking that step when China's military wasn't as good. But who knows what the future will bring? Perhaps Taiwan is wise to keep a low profile.

Never mind. I never bought the idea of "the end of history" simply because solving a problem is always the entry ticket for the next problem to be solved--or not solved, of course. Related.

It is not normal to respond to potentially offensive cartoons--and the contest was cancelled in response to threats--by stabbing people. Stop making excuses for these murderous maniacs who resort to murder when you dare suggest they are murderous maniacs. What doesn't anger them? Sadly, the Je Suis Charlie moment was all too brief.

This defeat and death toll likely reflects very poor training and leadership in the Nigerian force.

I wonder if China has supported this effort. I would not want America to lose the base at British-owned Diego Garcia.

With Russian dissatisfaction increasing a bit, Putin has decided not to take chances on whether the people know what he wants them to do and think.

The leader of the European Union defended Karl Marx in an "impassioned address." The Poles who suffered under Soviet rule objected, naturally enough. You really wonder why I consider the European Union as nothing more than an aspiring Soviet Union Lite that America should oppose?

Our Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff visited Greece. I suppose we may need a Plan B if we lose access to Incirlik air base in Turkey and in case Turkey no longer blocks the Turkish straits to Russian access. Although we deny this is related to Incirlik. I'd like to see an expansion of facilities on Crete.

Is Russia's very large Vostok 2018 exercise in the Far East part of practice for global war? And does it indicate the use of airborne assaults on a large scale? I do respect the author. But my view is more straightforward. I think the simplest explanation for the large exercise is because Russia is worried about China and knows that Russia is running out of time to get good enough to hold the Far East. But Russia has a long way to go and must pretend China is a partner. And I think the use of the entire Russian airborne corps is to practice moving their strategic reserve and not because it telegraphs the use of airborne assaults. Most of Russia's ground forces are second rate. Russia needs the ability to move their best troops--the airborne forces--anywhere within Russia to bolster the poorer troops when they face a threat.

Where ancient tanks still roam.

When I worked for the state legislature as a nonpartisan research analyst, I never once succumbed to the conceit that my time in service made my views superior to what the people elected to the legislature wanted to do. Unfortunately that is an occupational hazard, especially once term limits kicked in. Not once was I tempted to "save" the state by working against them. I wonder if all the Marvel (sorry DC) secret identity superhero movies is having an effect on people.

Just when did the Middle East cool off?  I really don't think that man ever adds value to the letters he clumps together.

This should be fascinating.

This article (toggle the reader view to see it) says Obamacare electronic records requirements are  harming doctor-patient relationships and causing doctor burnout. I only mention this because a few years ago after rather a log gap I resumed getting yearly physicals. And it was really noticeable how different my physical had become. The new one was much less hands-on and less focused on me. As I noted to my son who is aiming for the health field, it seemed like my doctor was treating my data and not treating me. I think I was on to something. Tip to Instapundit.

After 5 British fishing boats were confronted by 25 French fishing boats over scallop harvesting rules, the French say they might send in their navy. That sounds fair. Unless the British send 5 more fishing boats. Meanwhile the French try to salvage relations with nuke-seeking Iran. Sometimes I think everyone is taking crazy pills. Or I just don't get nuance, of course.

While I hope Belgium picks the American F-35 over the European plane as their new fighter, with all due respect to Belgium nothing the Belgians do or don't do is pivotal for Europe's future security.

Why this came to mind this last week, I do not know. Calm down. Everything will be okay. Okay?


All things sniper.

RAND looked at the Air Force pilot shortage issue and concluded that flying officers with no officer staff duties would help retain pilots while establishing warrant officers who only fly would hurt pilot retention because WOs max out at pay levels too low to compete with civilian offers.

Whatever else, South Sudan is an interesting experiment for Africans to see if changing often-reviled colonial era borders could solve tribal problems. Not the silver bullet.

I think this is silly.  We are adjusting to the new medium, it is true. So it seems scary and immediate. But that was true for television, radio, and the telegraph. Remember, the author of the piece is also trying to sell his book with exactly that plot line.

Romania needs air defenses given Russia's build up in Sevastopol. Flying ancient Mig-21s is insane after all this time in NATO.

While the people of southern Iraq have reason to complain that Shia-majority rule has not addressed the lack of services from the Saddam era when money was spent on the Sunni Arab minority to the north (because Shia corruption has proved to be almost as bad as Sunni hostility for budget outcomes), I assume Iran has a hand in making the situation worse and more violent. Although setting fire to an Iranian consulate down there is hardly support for my suspicions, I admit. But there is also this. What I'm sure about is that Iraq desperately needs Western help to build rule of law.

A call for a stronger Coast Guard to support the Navy, especially inexpensive forward deployed vessels to counter Chinese coast guard and naval militia vessels staking out the South China Sea. Good idea. Make sure whatever we send has a hull that can withstand ramming. I'm hoping an essay on a more expansive version of this idea will see the light of day in print.

That's an interesting sort-of state-level foreign policy agreement, no? First time I've heard of this.

Science! Tip to Instapundit.

Mexico's president blamed state and local police for surging violent crime in Mexico.  I'm so old that I can remember when Mexico rejected American requests to halt drug cartel smuggling to America by saying it was a demand problem--and besides, a lot of dollars flowed to Mexico so why was it a Mexican problem? Now it is a Mexican problem.

There seems to be a lot of posturing over the looming Syrian offensive into the last bastion of rebels--both jihadi and non-jihadis--in Idlib province in the northwest. Russia warns the West not to attack Syria while Western states like France and America warn they will strike Syria if chemical weapons are used. Despite Russian claims that the West will engineer a fake Syrian chemical weapons attack, it seems like Assad doesn't need to use chemical weapons now to terrorize a strong resistance. So Russian and Western warnings about things that won't happen allow each to pose as the actors who prevented those things from taking place.

From dissent to simply being on the other side.

Two-thirds of Iraq's refugees, displaced by the rise of ISIL, have returned home since the defeat of the territorial caliphate. Let's hope those returning home have cell phones and know who to call when the terrorists try to restart the path to a territorial caliphate.

Secretary of Defense Mattis and the top American general went to Afghanistan to check on progress in both the war and in negotiating with Taliban tired of war to isolate the Taliban and other jihadis who still want to fight. Even apart from the issue of preventing Afghanistan from being a haven for terrorists who want to strike us (again), it would be a shame after all this time to lose the benefits of staying as long as it takes to win. If we accept a loss, future enemies will take comfort in knowing if they just hang on long enough they will win. I'd rather have an enemy go into day one of a war thinking America could stay a generation to win.

Well that's a moment of unexpected candor: "“We cannot use (chemical) weapons against our people, and why would we use them? Normal weapons are enough,” Syrian Deputy-Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad said when asked about western threats against the regime if it uses chemical weapons in Idlib where a battle is looming." He's right, as I noted regarding the looming Idlib offensive.

Russia invaded Ukraine, denies they invaded Ukraine, and continues to occupy Ukrainian territory in the Crimean peninsula and in the Donbas region. Yet Russia claims the assassination of one of their hand puppet "separatists" is a "provocation" that harms the Minsk "peace process?" #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

I have no doubt that Trump will turn on Kim Jong-Un in a heartbeat if North Korea doesn't come through with real de-nuclearization. But I worry that North Korea is succeeding in buying the time they need to make the risks of attacking North Korea's nuclear capabilities too high to carry out. If we don't get them all, a city in South Korea, Japan--or perhaps our Guam or our troops on Okinawa--will be nuked by North Korea. Maybe we can shoot it down. How sure are we about that?

I've recently been made aware that because they yelled at me--a lot--that I had a lot of unhinged people in charge of me back when I was in Army basic training.