Well that's ominous:
Several factors have led to an escalation of coercive pressure on Taiwan in recent years. Xi is increasingly impatient with Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, who has refused to accept the 1992 consensus and the concept of ‘one China’. Tsai’s position is understandable: Taiwan is a strong and vibrant democracy and a majority of its population identify themselves not as Chinese, but Taiwanese. Pro-independence forces are gathering support, and Tsai is conscious of this growing sentiment in her Democratic Progressive Party base. She can’t ignore the will of the majority of Taiwan’s people. ...
Ni also argues that there’s a perception in Beijing that in spite of closer US–Taiwan ties under President Donald Trump, the US lacks the resolve to go to war against China over Taiwan. Now is Beijing’s opportunity to achieve China–Taiwan reunification, through the use of force if necessary.
The article discusses the possibility that Xi will decide to invade Taiwan (which is China's most central "core interest," so don't talk to me about how China "can't" invade) and cement his rule for--he hopes--decades to come.
I've thought China was getting ready to invade Taiwan for a long time. Obviously I was extremely wrong about the timing. But not about the intent and ability (if China is willing to pay the anticipated price).
And yes, China continues to get ready.
Yet that initial article warning about the cost that China would have to pay to take Taiwan breaks down when it gets to the insurgency issue. If China has taken enough of Taiwan to be talking about insurgency, Taiwan has lost the war and their freedom, and China has won. Have no doubt that China will do what it takes to ruthlessly pacify the Taiwanese--and "world opinion" be damned. And honestly, I'd expect mass expulsion of Taiwanese to Xinjiang and Tibet combined with Han colonization of Taiwan.
Indeed, I think China has essentially won if the war ends with a ceasefire with Chinese forces holding Taiwanese territory. If that happens, conquest is just a two-stage operation.
What is most worrisome is that Chinese leaders may think that the more powerful China they have built is far more powerful than reality justifies. Even winning a war will be costly for America.
And if China conquers Taiwan which becomes a Chinese power projection platform and which demonstrates the inability of America to protect a friend (if not ally, admittedly), we lose too.
It would be tragic if we fight a war with China just as it seems like China is finally starting to focus inland.
Have a super sparkly day.
