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Sunday, August 12, 2018

The Beginning of Wisdom in Moscow?

The Philippines wants a couple submarines and Russia is willing to help. Expand this thinking, Russia.

Huh:

The Philippine Navy (PN) and Russian Navy are discussing the terms of an agreement to expand collaboration on diesel-electric submarines, state-run media in Manila has reported.

The Philippine News Agency (PNA) reported on 6 August that the two navies recently discussed the draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) through which Russia would look to meet the PN’s requirement to procure the subsurface capability.

A PN submarine would complicate China's seaborne aggression against the territory and territorial waters of the Philippines.

Russia, which seems to be an ally of China, might seem like an odd country to arm the Philippines with submarines.

But Russia's cooperation with China has always seemed like a form of appeasement of China to buy time until Russia can recover and hold their vulnerable Far East.

At some point, Russia needs to distract China by arming opponents of China; which is a change from Russia's former strategy of arming China to point them to the sea rather than inland where Russia is vulnerable. China can pose a threat at sea. So maximum diversion was achieved. Now Russia needs to make sure China can't be victorious at sea and free to turn inland.

And while the Philippines is a nice place for Russia to build up resistance to China, Taiwan is the real place to build up. Will Russia help Taiwan get submarines?

Or does Russia believe they can defeat China by 2021? The more distracted China is in 2021 out to sea, the better price Russia might get for China to suspend its claims for another decade or two.