In addition to checking their math and maps, Russia needs to check their manpower:
A 2012 parliament-ordered investigation of the armed forces found that the army was short a third of the privates (lowest ranking enlisted troops) they were supposed to have. The Russian military (mainly the Army and Interior Ministry paramilitary units) are supposed to have a million personnel. But officials admitted in 2011, off-the-record, that the real number is closer to 800,000 and relentlessly declining. A subsequent investigation confirmed this.
Lack of enthusiasm for joining the army because of the horrible--even brutal--conditions, unwillingness to die for Russia abroad, shorter enlistment terms, and a shrinking recruiting base even beyond the loss of Soviet territory in 1991 have combined to deny post-Soviet Russia even the ability to fully man their shrunken military.
Russia doesn't have the power to win a conventional war of any size that lasts more than a couple months. Once enemies with more potential power mobilize and deploy their military power, Russia will lose.
Will Russia really be willing to fire off nukes to hold the relatively small gains they can make during the short period when Russia will have an advantage by initiating a war?
