The war against ISIL in Syria is renewed:
Today's briefing will focus on our efforts to defeat ISIS in Syria in order to bring peace, security and stability to the liberated areas of northeast Syria.
This week, following an increase in coalition strikes against the final ISIS-controlled areas in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces resumed offensive operations to clear the final ISIS-held territory in eastern Syria.
This increased defensive action to destroy ISIS marks the beginning of Operation Roundup, which is the coalition name for the operations to destroy ISIS in the final areas where they hold ground east of the Euphrates River and liberate the last of their fake caliphate.
The territory east of the Euphrates River will largely (except for some Assad pockets) be a free zone, with the new demilitarized zone (DMZ)--which I eventually dubbed the Deconfliction Line (DCL), based on the agreement with Russia to "deconflict" military aerial operations along that line to avoid unintended US-Russian military clashes--forming the unofficial border.
The problem as I've noted is that the Syrian forces on our side of the line (the SDF) are light and reliant on American firepower. What happens if Assad can clamp down in the west after defeating rebels there and organize a multi-division force to move east of the DCL?
So far, the SDF is holding off smaller-scale Assad efforts:
But when Syria has beaten down enemies in the west enough--assuming that an insurgency doesn't replace the territorial control of the civil war stage--Assad will eventually be able to send major formations to the province to bulldoze through any lighter SDF forces.
Ultimately, the eastern free zone can only survive with the fall of Assad and his replacement by a non-Alawite government that includes all groups; perhaps with strong regional governments in a more loosely rules confederation.
Could the free zone east of the DCL be a magnet to attract some of the Syrian refugees in neighboring states or in Europe? That might make the east more capable of organizing the capability to defend themselves against being pulled back into a dictatorial minority-led government run from Damascus.
UPDATE: Strategypage takes a tour of Syria.
