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Saturday, April 07, 2018

Weekend Data Dump

Will the courage of police Lieutenant-Colonel Arnaud Beltrame be remembered for long in France? Or did he get his approved weepy hashtag moment already, and that's about it? I suppose it depends on who wins that war.

And no, that's not fair. Tip to Instapundit.

You know, I manage to watch CNN right up until their stupid banana commercials. Their pretense that they distinguish between fake and real news is unbearable given the source.

Warning: the ink on this label may cause cancer. Well, not yet, anyway.

Strategypage discusses the rise of American snipers, Russia's response, and the American sale of sniper rifles to Ukraine to cope with the Russian snipers in the Donbas region of Russian-occupied Ukraine.

"Make America great again" is not racist or sexist because in the past American laws ratified discrimination (or worse) against non-Protestant whites. The slogan clearly uses "America" as the unit of measurement for economic power and opportunity at home on the one hand; and power and respect for the power abroad, on the other. Not that the actual history at that level is fully supportive of the nostalgia--post World War II devastation of our competitors in the world and Soviet opposition are big holes in that history of a "Golden Age." Personally, I don't think we went through an era when we haven't been great. Yet the slogan doesn't offend my historical knowledge or patriotism. But my point is that wanting America to be great on those factors (does excising "again" make it cool with you on historical or civil rights objections?) says nothing about the internal dynamics of civil rights. And yes, America had flaws on that measure. Which we have addressed you must admit--including with the lives of hundreds of thousands of Union soldiers who helped end slavery--even if we are not perfect. But who is or ever has been perfect? Our problems are those we shared with nations and civilizations at the time and throughout history. Our progress is sadly not so uniform around the world. If you can't accept that reality you can't claim any civilization, empire, or nation at any time was ever "great." And your ignorance of that broader history should be an indictment of your knowledge and not of America. So just stop your mindless extrapolation from a simple slogan.

Is there no end to the bad news that comes out about Germany's military? I'm starting to think that Germany should get rid of everything other than paramilitary light infantry useful to contain violent migrant mobs and send the rest of their defense spending to other NATO states with actual fighting militaries. That might be the best thing Germany could do for the alliance common defense. I'm sometimes cruel about Germany because I remember when West Germany fielded a damn good army and supporting air and naval forces. The contrast between then and now is heart breaking and frustrating.

One of the things that keeps me backing Trump is the utter contempt that liberals have for Trump voters who dared to vote for someone who promised to help them in their long-neglected communities bypassed by the coastal elites who only deign to recognize them every two years for their votes. I grew up in Deplorableville even though I live in one of those bubbles the author visited on the east coast. Hate Trump. Hate his policies. That's all fair game. But hate the people who voted for him? Well, as I've often written, it is a crime against language that "liberal minded" is used as a synonym for "open minded."

Could the new Chinese J-20 stealth fighter one day outperform the F-22? That's what this author thinks based on the pace of early updates on the Chinese plane. But how could it fail to be true that a new plane could be updated more than a plane more than 20 years old as the F-22 is? And don't forget that the J-20 isn't a true fully stealth plane like the F-22, and it has a number of problems that require upgrades. Nor is the F-22 our latest stealth plane--the F-35 is just coming on line now. Also, our system of air power is more than just the platform. I'm just saying don't fall for Chinese propaganda.

For the first time in modern history, London's murder toll (for February) exceeded New York City's. The London victims no doubt thank God that they weren't killed by guns. This may be an aberration from long-term rates, of course. But still, a reminder that people kill people.

Strategypage mentions in this post about cell phone security that the Ukraine front has had a lower priority for Russia since their open intervention in Syria in 2015. Which is why I've said Ukraine's outer defense perimeter is in Syria.

Democrats are certainly fine people and I worked with many in my career. But is it any wonder I rarely trust them on national security issues?

This effect of the online world is disturbing. But I never joined Twitter and I quit Facebook after hardly using it. Yet even though I do use the Internet for information I had little access to before the last couple decades, a couple years ago I did notice that I had less patience for reading books rather than online shorter pieces. I had to force myself to sit and read. But that effort paid off. It was highly disturbing to discover, however.

Turkey is becoming a really bad ally. But that is still better than being an enemy. So let's insulate ourselves from the problems of a potentially disloyal NATO ally (no nukes in Turkey, reducing intelligence and plan sharing, finding an alternative to Incirlik air base, and selling only reduced-tech F-35s to Turkey) while working to bring Turkey back from their movement toward Russia; rather than expelling Turkey from NATO which would simply make Turkey a foe rather than an imperfect enemy with hope of recovery. We still have friends in Turkey despite Erdogan's efforts to purge them all.

China still wants Taiwan and builds up their military to invade it. My old invasion scenario is still the pattern, I think. But as I've noted, enduring and blunting an invasion is not enough for Taiwan--Taiwan needs to throw the invaders into the sea. And remember, as I've long written, defending Taiwan isn't just an issue of defending a small free nation--it is also about keeping China from using Taiwan as a power projection platform. Some Chinese may be envious of Russia's Crimea takeover. All the more reason not to accept Russia's annexation of Crimea.

The replacement for the LCS that turned out to be an expensive but weak warship will be a frigate better armed and protected--but certainly won't be cheap. Which is a clear improvement. So no high-low mix for the Navy, it seems to me, to have numbers of hulls. Well, there's always a Navy modularized auxiliary cruiser for numbers in war time if the Army doesn't like the idea.

Russia is not the "dominant power in the [Middle East] region," as this article quotes a writer asserting. Russia is dominant only in the core Syria controlled by the bleeding and impoverished Assad regime. And Russia's relations with long-time enemies Turkey and Iran are summer flings to save Assad and that alliance. Where else does Russia have influence in the region as opposed to the American allies and friends in the region? Russia has a tiny and vulnerable military toe-hold in the region in contrast to America's broad and secure military presence. Don't make Putin into a giant when he is anything but that.

I'd worry that the only reason this surveillance is still going on is because whoever is doing it is protected, except that incompetence as a rule is generally the better explanation.

Joss Whedon wishes death for Trump. Whedon really is an a-hole despite making entertainment I really like. I was wrong to believe his anti-Romney commercial predicting doom if Romney won was a joke. What is broken inside of him?

Dan "Memogate" Rather is telling us how to recognize fake news. Not The Onion or an old April 1st story, I hasten to add. Unless the advice in its entirety is to disregard any Rather investigation, there's only one reaction:

Last week in the weekend data dump I said I didn't see how Trump could refuse to spend appropriated money without running afoul of trying to carry out a line item veto, which is not allowed. Apparently the way of doing this is provided for in statute and involves a simple majority vote in the Senate to approve of such spending cuts. So it isn't actually a line item veto variation. Herding the Republican senators into a voting bloc isn't easy, in contrast to Democratic discipline behind their leaders no matter what the issue when they have the majority. I admit I'm envious.

Our friends, the effing Russians. This energy grid hacking started no later than March 2016. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings Well, we're not done making Russia pay a price for being so Russia-like.

Trump will send the National Guard to the border to support the border forces. I'm no more a fan of this type of thing as a general practice than I was in 2006. But if temporary for a specific need, I can accept it. Indeed, the latest order is similar to the Bush and 2010 Obama orders. What is different is the Democratic hysteria that has greeted the Trump order. I'll note again that my grandfather served on the Mexican border prior to World War I when his New York National Guard unit was mobilized and sent there. I wouldn't include the Mexican War in a list of deployments for border security purposes, because otherwise you'd need to say America deployed twice to the Canadian border for border security purposes.

Whatever you think of American education outcomes, too little spending isn't the issue.  I suspect our top ranking students are as good as any of our competition and that our bottom ranking students drag down our average for comparison. We may also have more of our students tested which lets our competition in other countries effectively screen out those who don't do well on the tests that are the basis of measurement. But I haven't needed to pay attention to this issue for some time now.

One fence went down and another went up in Hungary? Can the author really not tell the difference between a wall designed to keep people in and one designed to keep people out?

Whatever problems we have with social media discrimination against political views, having the government "fix" it isn't the way to respond. If companies choosing what is allowed is bad, how much worse will it be if the government with the power to punish is given that power?

I see the liberal tolerance of different opinions lasted about 10 seconds, given The Atlantic's firing of newly hired conservative Kevin Williamson after his liberal colleagues complained enough. And in fact, it seems that the magazine's women are the cause, apparently because they aren't tough enough or smart enough to cope with one conservative drop polluting their figurative ink pool. As I've said before, it is a crime against language that "liberal minded" is considered a synonym for "open minded."

Hillary Clinton is whining about losing in 2016, painting dire reasons why she, the clearly "more qualified" candidate, lost. To be fair, Clinton did check more boxes on the "so you want to be president" checklist than Trump. So on a technical level she was more qualified. But that judgment applies to Clinton's loss in the Democratic primary to blank slate Obama in 2008, doesn't it? Yet only Republicans are guilty of failing to seize the chance to elect Hillary. And note that the more qualified McCain then lost to Obama. Honestly, I'm relieved both men defeated Hillary, whose corruption would have been far worse for America than what we've gotten.

I finished up season two of Santa Clarita Diet on Netflix. It was excellent and I did on occasion laugh out loud. The first season was certainly ... adequate. It was entertaining and had its moments. And it was good enough to watch and made me want to see the next season. But it didn't hit its stride the way it did in this season. Kudos. I hope it keeps going.

So will a couple decades of time in prison for the ex-president of South Korea for corruption lead North Koreans to think their own system is superior to the southern government that created a corrupt president? Will North Korean just think this is a trumped up charge to get a political opponent? Or will North Koreans be envious that South Koreans can jail even their leaders for actual crimes?

How Russia gets mercenaries to Syria. I'm not jumping on the anti-mercenary bandwagon. We did it in Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, and as long as the mercenaries follow the laws of war, it is not by itself bad. It's just a revival of a trend once common. But the article does show why sanctions are difficult to count on as it explains how planes are acquired in defiance of sanctions.

This trend would be celebrated as good news if it didn't reflect well on Trump. Tip to Instapundit.

Good Lord. Heartbreaking.

No doubt. The explosion of legal gambling hasn't killed illegal gambling. And high taxes on cigarettes encourage illegal cigarette trade.