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Thursday, February 01, 2018

Pretty Soon You're Talking Real Lift Capacity

Remember that a Chinese amphibious invasion doesn't have to look like an American amphibious invasion.

The Chinese have converted a couple cruise ships to bolster their expeditionary forces far from China:

In 2012 the Chinese naval ships operating off Somalia were seen accompanied by what appeared to be a cruise ship. It was actually the first of two “barracks ships” that the Chinese Navy has built since 2011. Both are 30,000 ton ships that appear to be based on cruise ship designs with lots of topside cabins with windows and large open decks for recreation. These two ships are indeed “barracks ships” but were designed to be quite flexible.

The ships provide breaks from deployment for Chinese military personnel deployed far from home. But that is not their only use.

How flexible?

In addition the barracks ships can accommodate up to 2,500 troops for short periods, like for a major invasion (of Taiwan, North Korea or whatever).

It would be safe to assume that any Chinese cruise ship (and it is a growing industry with numerous ports hosting cruise sailings) could be pressed into service as a troop transport. This practice is rather common in history actually, including in the Falklands War. Note that China seeks to expand their cruise ship building capacity.

Chinese cruise ships are gaining familiarity with the South China Sea region.

And don't forget the container ships and other civilian vessels that China has ordered to be capable of adaptation for military purposes.

All this--along with older warships in their navy and coast guard--adds up to the ability to lift a lot of army troops to invade Taiwan and go right for the jugular to seize Taipei. The Chinese don't need the ability to recreate D-Day when the Taiwanese don't have the Atlantic Wall.

The relatively small size of the Chinese marine force and amphibious shipping is often used as a reason why China "can't" invade Taiwan. But the Chinese marines are a red herring on the Taiwan question because the marines aren't intended to spearhead the invasion of Taiwan.

Add together old warships, container ships, ro-ro ships, large hovercraft, long-range helicopters, transport planes to drop or lift infantry, and yes--cruise ships--and pretty soon you have a significant lift capability to invade Taiwan.

Heck, could the Chinese throw light infantry across to confuse the Taiwanese with a "reverse Dunkirk" using their fishing craft militia to land troops all along the west coast of Taiwan while the main invasion aims for Taipei?

This would be suicidal if the Taiwanese are ready to fight; but if the landings added to the confusion that leads to a collapse of Taiwanese resistance, it would be worth the risk.