It never seemed to me that the Iranian protests worked up any head of steam to seriously threaten the regime. I hoped it might, but I never heard of any leaders rallying the people.
It's over--for now:
After a week of public protests, the dust is starting to settle in Iran. Without clear leadership or a specific political movement for protesters to gather around, the intensity of the demonstrations that popped up around the country has begun to dissipate. But that doesn't mean the government in Tehran can breathe easy. The economic grievances that sparked the initial unrest are still alive and well among the Iranian public, and many of them are beyond the power of the current administration to fix. Furthermore, the work required to address the issues that are within the government's control risks upsetting the delicate balance of Iranian politics.
Of course, one of the reasons that the Iranian "deplorables" not connected to the regime's corrupt business network have not received any relief in their conditions is that the regime is bankrolling war around the region to extend Iranian influence:
Why are citizens protesting in Iran? It’s a question raised by many local strategic analysts who described the Iranian protest as “one of the biggest for almost decades.” The answer lies primarily in military investments.
Military spending and support for allies abroad to increase Iranian influence in the region soak up money that could be used for promoting job creation.
I'm so old that I remember when the Big Brained nuanced set in the Obama administration who breathed Smart Diplomacy assured us that the Iran nuclear deal would lead Iran's leaders to use their financial windfall on domestic development:
“We gave [our Gulf Arab allies] our best analysis of the enormous needs that Iran has internally and the commitment that Iran has made to its people in terms of shoring up its economy and improving economic growth,” Mr. Obama said at the conclusion of a meeting with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.
The breathtaking stupidity of our leadership telling us that because we explained how Iran could use the money domestically that the Iranians would say, "great idea!" and start becoming that responsible, successful regional partner needs to be remembered. As does the bizarre eagerness to believe the Iranians when they said they had a commitment to doing exactly that.
And here we are with Iran pursuing influence by taking advantage of or stoking chaos in the region, and building up their military potential.
Recall this when you think about how the entire 2015 nuclear deal rests on Iran's denial that they have ever even wanted nuclear weapons or were pursuing nuclear weapons. Or is that the commitment Iran has made that we can trust?
The economic grievances remain. Will dissident leaders recognize the power of the economic grievances and stand up to lead the people who came out into the streets?
Will a revolution save us from a nuclear-armed mullah regime?
