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Sunday, December 24, 2017

When You Sabre Rattle You Have a Sabre

In response to new UN sanctions that severely restrict oil exports to North Korea and ban foreign earnings by virtual slave labor rented to other countries, North Korea has issued a worrisome response.

Said the North Koreans in response to the new UN-approved sanctions:

"We define this 'sanctions resolution' rigged up by the U.S. and its followers as a grave infringement upon the sovereignty of our Republic, as an act of war violating peace and stability in the Korean peninsula and the region and categorically reject the 'resolution'," it said.

"There is no more fatal blunder than the miscalculation that the U.S. and its followers could check by already worn-out 'sanctions' the victorious advance of our people who have brilliantly accomplished the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force", the ministry said.

This is not just sabre rattling as I've heard analysts assert. Oh, it might be. They do that.

But perhaps not.

As I've said repeatedly on this blog, I'm skeptical of sanctions as an effective alternative to war because if sanctions are truly effective, the target nation may view them as indistinguishable from kinetic war in their effects and so include military operations in their potential responses.

It was no happenstance that my first lyrics of my "Rocket Man" song parody were based on oil sanctions:

Xi blocked my oil last night--we'll fight
Zero hour six AM

Mind you, it is worth a shot to at least weaken North Korea. And it might work.

But we need to be prepared for the possibility that initiating war is not purely an option for America or China.

Have a super sparkly Christmas Eve.