While there is uncertainty over when North Korea will master all the details of a working multi-stage long-range nuclear missile, taking action in early 2018 makes the most sense if military action is anticipated. Better sooner than too late if the intelligence is too hazy to pinpoint when the threat is "imminent."
I freely admit that I'm looking for dots that fill in the picture I've already painted. I like to think that if I had better information than open sources, I'd be able to test the picture. But I don't have more than I have, and so I can't. But at least I am aware that it is easy to see evidence of what I am looking for.
That said, what does South Korea's apparent decision to postpone military exercises with America until after the February 2018 winter Olympics in South Korea mean?
South Korean officials said on Wednesday a proposed delay in military drills with the United States was aimed at ensuring a peaceful 2018 Winter Olympics, not ending the North Korean missile crisis, as relations with China suffered new setbacks.
Consider that with all the military exercises that have taken place, a pre-H Hour stand down of some military assets not needed to protect the Olympics is useful for maintenance to maximize availability prior to use.
And the security blanket in South Korea to defend the Olympics is a useful thing to have done prior to an aerial campaign against North Korea.
The massive publicity of a prosperous South Korea that will leak into North Korea during the games will be a nice thing for North Koreans to have in their minds as military action takes place.
The outflow of Olympics visitors after the games are over will provide a nice cover for American military families to get out of dodge before hostilities commence, which could begin under cover of beginning those delayed exercises.
And all these preparations are useful just in case, even if the Chinese decide to take action to forestall American-led military action. If the Chinese invasion or coup falters, American and South Korea forces may need to go north and establish a no-launch zone north of the DMZ to shield Seoul from artillery bombardment; and to secure nuclear assets while an American-led air campaign begins parallel to the Chinese effort which will also keep North Korean military assets busy that will indirectly help the Chinese effort.
Although securing North Korean nuclear assets really requires regime collapse to carry out. It would not be possible to carry out that mission against a North Korean army that defends the DMZ.
Or this could be in preparation for a joint military operation with China (and even with Russia, I suppose).
The obvious explanation is that South Korea just wants a peaceful and successful Olympics (and the subsequent Paralympics) and is willing to delay military exercises to get that (if North Korea cooperates).
Or it may be that the needs of securing the Olympics makes military exercises at the same time a bit much to coordinate and so South Korea might as well try to get a diplomatic benefit with North Korea (if that is even possible) while having their own reasons for delaying the exercises.
I don't know if this proposal means anything. But it could. And I wouldn't be surprised if it meant something.
UPDATE: The progress of North Korea's nuclear drive.
It took a long time to get here and North Korea doesn't have far to go, but the danger has long been evident while we did nothing and hoped for the best.
Not that doing nothing was obviously the wrong choice. Sometimes things do resolve themselves or make the choices better. Given the problems of doing something, I was in favor of "doing nothing" (talk, talk, die, die).
And to be fair, over the time we "did nothing" our missile defenses were created, the North Korean conventional military rotted away, South Korea's military strengthened, and American forces were pulled back from vulnerable positions on the DMZ.
So our military options are far better now than in the past. Although we "did nothing" for about a year or two too long, it seems.
