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Thursday, December 14, 2017

China Will Need a Favor from America

It never occurred to me that tax cuts in America would strain China. Which is an opportunity for America.

Huh. China is working on counter-measures for an American corporate tax cut:

Under the plan, the people say, the People’s Bank of China stands ready to deploy a combination of tools—higher interest rates, tighter capital controls and more-frequent currency intervention—to keep money at home and support the yuan.

An official involved in Beijing’s deliberations called Washington’s tax plan a “gray rhino,” an obvious danger in China’s economy that shouldn’t be ignored.

In addition, factories normally going to China might set up in America, adding to the strain on China's economy--and hence to China's stability, representing a threat to the Chinese Communist Party monopoly of power.

So basically, China will need a favorable trade deal with America to make up for changes in the American tax structure.

I recall that President Trump offered a better trade deal to China if they dealt with North Korea so America doesn't have to.

If China refused that offer of a benefit to act, is this tax cut designed to (or at least will it have that effect) make the trade deal-North Korea deal an offer that China can't refuse just to reverse a harm?

Indeed, this kind of trade could be broader. Could America even now be negotiating and drafting a new Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal (TPP) that will be unveiled after a crisis with North Korea erupts (with either America and/or China taking the lead) to calm markets and get a trade deal passed in the Senate with the argument that it is needed for national security and is better than the one negotiated under President Obama?

National power is not just military power, of course.