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Monday, November 13, 2017

This Could Be Win-Win and Not Lose-Win

Stop the panic. China is Plan B for Saudi Arabia, as China has been in the past. And ties could help America rather than being seen as automatically harming us while benefiting China.

America and Saudi Arabia are working more closely now, although the tensions from the Obama era surely remind the Saudis that they need a powerful friend somewhere. Russia isn't the answer. China is by default. So don't jump to the worrying stage:

The Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli’s visit to Saudi Arabia in the summer of 2017 was a deal maker. There was agreement on a $20 billion Sino-Saudi investment fund, along with discussions of nuclear energy projects and other economic agreements worth nearly $70 billion.

So what is going on between the two countries? Why is a communist superpower collaborating with an American ally in the Middle East? Is there more to this than economic cooperation? And could it be the start of a power transition in the region, with China taking over US leadership?

China needs oil where America is exporting energy.

China is a potential foe of Russia who supports Syria and Iran--Saudi Arabia's main foreign enemy.

China is willing to sell weapons to anyone (and Saudi Arabia used to have Chinese silo-based ballistic missiles lacking only nuclear warheads) no questions asked.

China has a UN Security Council veto.

And China did move into the neighborhood with a new base in Djibouti at the southern outlet of the Red Sea.

So while Saudi Arabia could muck things up with a full China switch, closer relations with America make that unlikely right now.

And an outreach could strip Iran of an ally; gain weapons sales if America or Europe (especially) balk at selling the Saudis weapons and ammunition; gain a reliable customer invested in Saudi survival; and compel Russia to be the lone veto wielder in defense of Iran, which will help isolate Russia in the Arab world.

A Saudi outreach to China could complement the growing American-Saudi cooperation against Iran.