China's Rise is Not Infinite

This author rightly contests two views of American relations with China.

One, he thinks the Thucydides Trap that warns of America waging a preventive war on China to preempt a power transition from American to Chinese dominance is over-stated as a problem.

I agree. Sheer distance is a factor in escaping that "trap," if it is as much of a problem through history as some claim.

One problem is that even with a power transition that leaves America behind, America will have the geographic advantage of having more deployable power than China stuck on a dangerous continent.

And the author says that the power transition isn't inevitable.

I too agree with that, in part based on demographic problems that China has, and wonder whether--if China does pass America by in economic power--America will reclaim the lead. The difference between 2050 and 2100 could be rather interesting.

I'm not even sure if a future more prosperous "China" will be a political or a geographic term.

China is rising. How far and what the definition of "China" will be are unclear.

UPDATE: A discussion of China's demographic problem.