Being struck hard with the clue bat has an effect:
More than a dozen Syrian rebel factions have thrown their weight behind a proposed plan to create a single "national army" to unify the fractured opposition movement.
The idea was proposed earlier this week by the opposition's interim government in exile and by the Syrian Islamic Council (SIC), a body of Syrian Muslim clerics established in 2014 in Turkey.
"We must end the fractured state we are now facing and unify ranks," said the SIC, calling on rebels "to form one revolutionary army".
This would help. Unity of effort would be increased. And maybe the rebels could shift forces between areas to resist attacks or hit weak points as a result of this unity. Maybe rebel groups will then refuse ceasefires with the regime that only allow Assad to move against other rebel groups.
Of course, the plan has to be carried out.
And then the war has to be won with that newly unified rebellion. This path could work.
The rebels should not pin any hopes on the farcical French plan that hopes a paper deal will defeat Assad in the absence of a Western determination to help rebels defeat Assad.
Why would Assad go along with the French when he has endured the multi-war?
Assad is winning, it is true. But he has a long way to go before he has victory. And while you are fighting, winning can shift to losing. That was certainly our experience in Iraq where we seemed on a victory path several times only to have the enemy take actions that reversed--for a while--that winning path. The same can happen again in Syria that has seen observers swing between assuring us that the rebels or Assad were destined to win.
The rebels have the knowledge that defeat means death or exile. They should also remember that Assad's military has suffered huge losses that his small base of support may balk at paying for years more; the rebels should remember that Hezbollah has suffered a lot and that they could decide to endure no more, or could be compelled to return to Lebanon if Israel strikes at Hezbollah hard; the rebels should remember that Iran might not be able to afford to prop up Assad if the anti-Iran coalition that America should be a part of can squeeze Iran; and the rebels should remember that Russia's ability to sustain an intervention is not limitless, and that the war in Ukraine could soak up too many resources to back Assad to the hilt.
The war is not over. Assad is winning at the moment. But until he wins the tide of war can change again to roll against Assad.
