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Thursday, June 02, 2016

Shia Radicalism Now, Shia Radicalism Tomorrow, Shia Radicalism Forever

Iran under the mullahs is unlikely to become moderate either in religious ideology or foreign policy.

Yes, as an empire Iran needs something more than "sit down and shut up" to justify a Persian-ruled empire (tip to Instapundit):

Bottom line: the much ballyhooed ‘triumph of the moderates’ was another piece of White House spin, presumably pumped into the national consciousness by those helpful folks at Ploughshares.

What’s really going on in Iran has almost nothing to do with the happy clappy Beltway talk about peaceable mullahs and the kinder, gentler theocracy they aspire to create. Unfortunately, hardline values are hard wired into the Iranian regime and Iranian foreign policy, and no White House spinmeister can make that grim reality go away.

Iran is a multi-ethnic state, like the Soviet Union, or the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires. Kurds, Azerbaijanis, Arabs, Baluchis and many others share the territory of the Islamic Republic with ethnic Persians, who comprise only about 60 percent of the total population. These ethnic groups haven’t always been happy under Persian domination.

The result, Mead writes, is that Iran must use radical Shia ideology to keep the ethnic minorities in line and to provide a wedge abroad to appeal to non-Persian Arabs who share Shia belief that Sunni Arabs look down on.

Likewise on the anti-America and anti-Israel stuff which Iran can use to tar the Sunni Arab governments that America supports.

The White House spins reality to say moderates are on the rise in Iran. Iran spins centrifuges that will get them nuclear weapons--even if the Iran deal works as spun by the White House.

And our only hope to avoid tragedy is that somehow a revolution stirs in Iran to overthrow the mullah regime before it gets nuclear weapons.

Which is possible, when you recall that Assad called unwavering hostility to Israel a pillar of his regime that could not be shaken.

But the casualties--still counting--to prove him wrong have been astounding.

Have a super sparkly day.