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Monday, April 04, 2016

When You Assume

Wars don't win themselves. If you think so, 250,000 or so dead later the war is still going on.

Jihadis are striking back in the Aleppo region after Russian support helped Assad's forces claw back ground there:

Syrian rebels and the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front have mounted an offensive against Syrian government forces and on Saturday took a strategic hill south of Aleppo from government control, a monitoring group said.

After saying Assad had to resign, President Obama rejected efforts to make his call more than posturing:

The CIA in 2012 proposed a detailed covert action plan designed to remove Syrian President Bashar Assad from power, but President Obama declined to approve it, current and former U.S. officials tell NBC News.

I admit that when I figured in early 2012 that Assad couldn't hold his ground with his limited loyal forces as long as resistance continued, I assumed we'd have a role in bolstering that resistance given the long history of Syria under the Assad dynasty of killing Americans from Lebanon to Iraq as an Iran ally.

Enemies should know that we won't forget what they do to us and that we will take the chance to get revenge when the opportunity arises.

I was shocked that we did not support the rebellion. But at least our agencies tasked with doing these things were on the ball enough to make the plan.

Silly me for assuming we'd take the opportunity to take an enemy down a peg.

But hey, we didn't want to "further militarize" the struggle. How'd that work out?

A decision not to do something is still a decision. With consequences for Syria, Iraq, neighboring states, Africa, Paris, and Brussels.

Thank goodness we avoided doing stupid sh*t, eh?

UPDATE: The Syrians are in turn, striking back:

The Syrian army and its allies launched a counteroffensive to recapture a village south of the city of Aleppo that was overrun by rebel fighters days earlier, activists said on Wednesday.

Russian intervention didn't win the war. And as Syrians (and their Hezbollah allies) find themselves still fighting for the same stupid villages again and again, the hit to morale could be worse than if Russia hadn't intervened and raised hopes for a light at the end of the tunnel.

But that requires Assad's enemies to keep fighting. I'm sure the Russians and Assad are counting on John Kerry to undermine that kind of resistance.