Scotland risks having a “very hollow military force” as a result of a limited defence budget should the country become independent on 18 September, according to Edward Hunt, an IHS Senior Defence Consultant.
I may have over-estimated Scotland's desire to have a decent military.
I assumed that with a population of 5.3 million, a GDP of $216 billion, and a commitment to spend a paltry 1.2% of GDP, that Scotland could have a small but good military on the assumption that British tradition in this regard would continue.
Looking at what the Czechs, Norwegians, and Dutch field as rough guides, I assumed Scotland could have an army of one brigade (with a mix of mechanized and light infantry) plus reserve Home Guard type local defense forces, an air force of 24 fighter aircraft (total in inventory, including trainers and spares) and 6 naval patrol aircraft, and a navy of 4 frigates and 8 large patrol craft as the main force.
Have I over-stated what Scotland is willing to support as an independent state?
Or have I under-estimated what Scotland would try to field given a likely defense budget?
UPDATE: The question is moot:
The vote on Thursday — 55 percent against independence to 45 percent in favor — saw an unprecedented turnout of just under 85 percent.
I'm relieved.
