Reading Kom.Pravda,it feels Russia edging towards military interv'n in Ukraine ("If Russia doesn't stop this war,history won't forgive us")
When the press that reports what the government wants is speaking of the need to invade Ukraine, Putin's intent should be pretty clear.
UPDATE: I imagine the question of whether Russia invades depends on whether the Spetsnaz-instigated uprisings in eastern Ukraine (this does not deny that there are sincere--albiet a minority--Ukrainians participating in these uprisings) are suppressed by the so-far minimally effective operations to regain control of the east's cities.
If Ukraine can't regain control, Russia doesn't need to invade. Perhaps they get away with just sending in Interior Ministry troops to restore order without having to fight Ukraine's limited forces in the region.
And that job is more complicated by the need to send in forces to Odessa where local police seem unwilling or unable to preserve the peace:
Ukraine's Interior Minister said on Monday he had drafted a new special forces unit into the southern port city of Odessa after the "outrageous" failure of police to tackle pro-Russian separatists in a weekend of violence that killed dozens.
Fighting continued near the eastern city of Slaviansk where Ukrainian troops have been, somewhat tentatively, pressing a campaign to end pro-Russian rebellion. A Reuters correspondent said gunfire seemed to be coming closer to the city center.
Ukraine has a difficult job. Ukraine doesn't trust the loyalty of police and has to worry about the loyalty and effectiveness of the army. Clearly, some military units are holding loyal since they are fighting and operating around Slovyansk.
But the Odessa situation is a problem. The "special forces unit" is not a special forces unit. It is apparently a new unit made of those who rose up against the Yanukovich government prior to Russia's subliminal invasion of Crimea.
The unit likely isn't well trained. But it has the advantage of being loyal. Whether it has leadership that translates that loyalty into the ability to restrain themselves in the face of pro-Russian protesters is another question. Sending such loyalists could enflame the situation and give Russia another pretext to invade Ukraine.
This is a major problem. If Ukraine's actions to fight the Russian subliminal invasion of the east are too violent and cause too many civilian casualties (even among armed civilians in pro-Russian militias), the Ukrainian government could push the many neutrals among the people to resisting Ukraine by siding with Russia that promises "order" in the east if the people pay the price of joining Russia.
And those who are pro-Ukraine could find themselves silenced out of shame of being on the side of that violence and out of fear that a Russian invasion is more likely as a result. Even a successful Ukrainian operation that alienates much of the local population and convinces Russia not to invade could create an eager pro-Russian segment of the population that will be vulnerable to future Russian exploitation to absorb the region some time in the future.
But what choice does Ukraine's government have but to try to reasssert control? Failing to try means they will lose control without a fight. Ukraine needs good commanders who can use a core force of loyal "special forces" units to whip the local police into line by making sure they know what is expected of them in defending law and order, not asking them to wage war on pro-Russian elements, and reassuring them that they can enforce law and order without being targeted by pro-Russian elements as "traitors" to Russia.
I sure hope our FBI and CIA advisors (and I assume people from other NATO countries) are able to help the Ukrainians with this task. Otherwise, Russia--worrying about being on the wrong side of their (not President Obama's) history--will act on their rhetoric and "rescue" Ukraine from the violence that Russia is stoking.
