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Friday, May 16, 2014

Don't Spot China $8 Trillion

China is not on the cusp of having a larger economy than America. Not by a long shot given that our GDP is nearly twice the size of China's:

This article knocks the notion that if you turn down the lights and squint real hard use purchasing power parity (PPP) to inflate China's economy, China is on the verge of passing us by:

Nice game, but it doesn’t reflect real economic power. When China imports technology from the U.S. or high-tech weaponry from Israel, it has to pay in dollars. Ditto when it gobbles up African mines or buys the loyalty of developing countries with foreign aid. Tuition for Chinese students at Stanford University is also billed in dollars. Same with Beemers and Porsches.

In other words, PPP is a handy way to inflate a developing country’s economy. But it is a rubbery standard when measuring the real clout of nations -- especially when U.S. per capita GDP (in dollars) is eight times bigger than China’s, which is just a shade higher than Peru’s.

Yes. Thank you.

And even if China manages, in several decades, to approach our economy's productivity and gross GDP, they might not be able to hold their lead after that.