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Sunday, May 18, 2014

Bottom of the Barrel?

How bad is Syria's manpower problem?

This is a mystery to me:

Syria's air defense chief was killed during an offensive by President Bashar al-Assad's forces against rebels east of Damascus, Islamist rebels and a monitoring group said.

They said General Hussein Ishaq died on Sunday from wounds suffered on Saturday during the assault by Assad's forces on the town of Mleiha which appears aimed at expanding the president's control around the capital before a June 3 election.

Just how does a senior air defense commander get wounded in a Syrian offensive?

Given Syria's manpower shortages--needing those Hezbollah and Shia foreign legion fighters from Iraq noted in the article to be assault forces--have the air defense force troops been turned into ground forces? Was the general leading them into combat? Would this explain the general's death?

With news that Hezbollah is having trouble staying on the line and given news that Iran is recruiting Afghans for their Shia foreign legion because of casualties in that force, could Assad be converting air defense troops with little role in this war into something he can use--cannon fodder?

There is precedent from World War II when the Luftwaffe created its own ground divisions in response to army casualties. These divisions didn't hold up in combat, however.

If this is what is happening, this would be pretty significant because Assad would be sacrificing forces needed to confront another country with an air force in order to defeat insurgents and terrorists.

I'm speculating a lot based on one event, I admit. The general might have taken a wrong turn on the way to a meeting and just got shot up by a rebel road block.

But these are the questions I'd be asking if I had a job of figuring out what is going on in Syria and I had access to people who could answer those questions.

Just why would the senior general of air defense forces be in a position to be killed during a Syrian assault on a town?

UPDATE: The Air Defense Command is indeed being used in the fight:

The regime's air defence force is to face a possible US attack, but in this war it is using its firepower against the rebels," said Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdel Rahman.

No mention of the 60,000 (pre-revolt) troops being retasked as infantry. But the troops are using their weapons against the rebels. Since my older IISS Military Balance only shows anti-aircraft missiles in their equipment holdings, I assume the Syrians are using the missiles for ground bombardment. Recall that Saddam worked on converting SA-2 missiles to surface-to-surface missiles.

Yet it is still odd for a top general to be so close to the enemy if his command is being used for firepower support only.