This is interesting--but not in a good way:
Collapse in North Korea makes South Korea and China nervous and, according to opinion surveys more South Koreans are agreeing with China taking over up there. That’s because since the 1990s South Korean reunification experts have been studying what happened in Germany (after the communist East Germany was absorbed by the democratic West Germany). That cost the West German taxpayers over two trillion dollars. Estimates of what it will cost South Koreans to absorb North Korea are now over five trillion dollars. Then there was the fact that Germany had a GDP four times that of South Korea, meaning that the average South Korean will have to pay ten times what the average West German paid to rebuild their lesser half. This could cost South Koreans up to ten percent of their GDP for a decade or more. Many South Koreans fear that rebuilding the north could wreck the South Korean economy. No one knows, and everyone is scared. But someone will have to pay, and the most likely candidate is the South Korean taxpayer. Unless, of course, China is allowed to take over. This is something China is not only willing to do but is kind of insisting on.
I can understand China not wanting American forces on their border if South Korea takes over North Korea. I won't defend that view that denies neighbors the right to be who they want to be without China exercising a veto. But I understand it.
I don't understand why South Korea thinks that China absorbing North Korea is better than South Korea moving in. Yes, it would cost South Korea. But they wouldn't bear all of the costs, I'm sure.
But isn't there a happy median between Chinese forces on the DMZ and American forces on the Yalu River? (And while we'd have no interest in moving north, the Chinese would have to see that NATO is moving east despite earlier pledges--although China will no doubt ignore the Russian provocation that prompted this new view of the threats to eastern NATO.) Couldn't we reduce the costs to South Korea by reducing what South Korea would be responsible for?
I say partition North Korea:
[We could] establish a pro-South Korean 'Middle Korea' regime from the DMZ up to a line north of the rail link between Pyongyang and Wonson. US combat forces would not enter this area and South Korea would not deploy combat aircraft or surface-to-surface missiles in this area. Ground units would be limited as well, with relatively few tanks allowed. Perhaps Japanese military police and engineer units could contribute, although Korean sensitivities would probably preclude this. But it would be nice to get Japan involved.
China would establish a regime from their border south to the rump Middle Korea. Let's call it Hungnam Korea to avoid seeming like the successor regime to the Pillsbury Nuke Boy's nutjob state. China would likewise not deploy combat aircraft or surface-to-surface missiles with limits on tanks and army units in place.
If we must, to get the UN's blessing (this is one icky place I'd like their blessing and since we have it already from the first Korean War, we could probably get something here as a continuation), we could create a small fourth Korea--Chongjin Korea--in the northeast corner adjacent to Russia.
I actually assume that we'd need the UN's blessing since this war was waged under UN authority and is merely in a ceasefire stage.
In theory, these would all be trust territories that would be prepared for eventual reunification in one Korea. But there'd be no deadlines.
The entire territory of former North Korea would be a partially demilitarized zone (PDMZ). Perhaps China would be allowed outposts along major lines of communication in the south to monitor and detect South Korean troop movements into and out of Middle Korea while South Korea would be allowed outposts to monitor and detect Chinese troops movements into Hungnam Korea.
I can understand South Korea being daunted by the cost of repairing the deeply damaged North Korea. But is it really worth it to bring China closer and risk getting pounded into submission by the far larger China?
On the bright side, Taiwan would perhaps appreciate their 100-mile-wide anti-tank ditch that complicates China's threats to Taiwan.
