Going Where Assad Isn't

Even as Assad is using limited ground power to go on offense around Damascus, especially to the west toward Lebanon's border, other rebels are making forays into previously safe areas in the Alawite core region.

The war is continuing in Syria, notwithstanding Assad's stated confidence that he will win:

For three years, residents of Syria's Mediterranean provinces have watched from their coastal sanctuary as civil war raging further inland tore the country apart, killing tens of thousands of people and devastating historic cities.

But a three-week-old offensive by rebel fighters in the north of Latakia province, a bastion of President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite minority, has brought the battle ever closer and shattered that sense of relative security.

Rebels are now fighting in the hills overlooking the sea, bringing the country's main port of Latakia within their range - rocket-fire killed eight people in one barrage on the city a month ago - and Syria's coast feels under real threat.

If rebels can't hold areas, they need to disperse and go guerilla. And hit where Assad is weaker. Casualties are Assad's weak link with only 10% of Syria's population in Assad's Alawite community.