Our top general in Europe says Russia retains options to push into Ukraine:
The entire suite that would be required to successfully have an incursion into Ukraine should the decision be made," Breedlove said. "We think it is ready to go and we think it could accomplish its objectives in between 3 and 5 days if directed to make the actions."
He said Russia could have several potential objectives, including an incursion into southern Ukraine to establish a land corridor to Crimea, pushing beyond Crimea to Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odessa or even threatening to connect to Transdniestria, the mainly Russian-speaking, separatist region of Moldova that lies to the west of Ukraine.
I have to believe that a 3-5 day time frame is for occupying eastern Ukraine from Kharkov to Donetsk.
And I have my doubts that Russia could really pull off either a seizure of a land bridge to Crimea or a drive all the way to Transdniestria.
But I've read nothing about actual Ukrainian deployments, although I've read the Ukrainians have reinforced the east.
I can believe that Russia could move into their objectives in eastern Ukraine in under a week. But could they hold them if the Ukrainians continue to fight?
Yes, the Russian seizure of Crimea was very impressive:
This whirlwind campaign seems to herald a new sophistication in how Russian commanders conduct military operations. The most distinctive feature of the Russian operation was its emphasis on economy of effort.
About that economy of effort. It was effective but did not rise to a demonstration of Russian war-making prowess. I hate to point out the obvious, but that requires combat (UPDATE: Or at least combat operations against even feeble opposition--Germany's occupation of Denmark in 1940 was a combat operation, I'd say. Crimea didn't rise to that level.).
I'm not sure what Russia is capable of doing in Ukraine. Russia's troop strength gives Russia an advantage on the ground over Ukraine's entire army and paramilitaries, but I don't think it is decisive. I suspect Russia isn't as capable of rapid, decisive operations as Putin would like the world to believe.
Which makes me wonder if Breedlove is talking up Russian capabilities to deter them by making the reality of any action fall well below expectations.
