Recall that in my Ukrainian response post to a hypothetical Russian invasion scenario that I called for Ukraine to use their air defense assets in Ukraine as possible to isolate Sevastopol from air reinforcements.
One can assume that the Russian air lift of reinforcements will continue.
For something this big, I'd assume that Russia needs time to prepare. Russia needed a lot of time to prepare for the Georgia War, as I noted earlier.
But what if Russia used the cover of preparing for the Olympics defense effort to mask their preparations for a war with Ukraine?
Hard for me to say. But I'm not reassured by reports that our intelligence agencies don't think the Russians will invade. What if the preparation time depends on whether the objective is just Crimea or Crimea plus eastern Ukraine?
And just what does China think of Russia encouraging separatism in a UN state? You'd think there would be room for smart diplomacy there.
UPDATE: The same live blog reports that the Russians have seized control of the ferry system at the Kerch Strait by capturing Kerch. Which was my other point of entry to Crimea for Russian troops from the Southern Military District.
Remember, articles have made much of the fact that this district was not involved in the mobilization order for the Western Military District. But the south is already at high alert from the Olympics security mission and ongoing war against jihadis in the Caucasus, as I noted.
UPDATE: Is this enough to trigger an invasion?
The pro-Russian leader of Ukraine's Crimea region claimed control of the military and police there Saturday and appealed to Russia's President Vladimir Putin for help in keeping peace, sharpening the discord between the two Slavic neighbor countries.
Or does Russia want the May referendum as a pretext to invade? And does Russia need the new legislation passed to expedite annexation before moving?
Just what is the status of Turkey's interests in this issue? (I read there is a 18th century treaty that could be relevant if Crimea secedes.)
If I had to guess, I'd say Russia needs time to prepare for a takeover of Crimea and to prepare to move into eastern Ukraine in response to similar requests from that region. As long as they can get away with it, Russia will use this gray area between war and peace to complete their reinforcement of Crimea by air and establish a bridgehead at Kerch.
I don't think that Russia feels the need for a referendum in Crimea first. Indeed, I think that the Russians would prefer to have boots all over the ground before a referendum. You never can tell what people might do, after all. Look at Kiev.
But Russia will want that annexation legislation signed into law. Make it a quick law, then get that leader to call for help (with or without a pretext of some clash between pro-Kiev and pro-Moscow elements in Crimea), move the troops out of their positions in their Crimea enclaves, annex Crimea, invade eastern Ukraine for the duration of the crisis "to protect ethnic Russians" but more importantly to hold a bargaining chip if Ukrainian troops respond to the Crimea takeover, and offer to talk about peacefully settling the crisis,
Heck, Lavrov will personally invite John Kerry. It'll be fun.
UPDATE: Uh oh. That pro-Russian referendum will be held this month rather than May 25th. Russia's armed forces may be better prepared for action than I assumed. How long has this been planned, anyway?
Pucker factor rising.
UPDATE: Putin requests legislative authority for sending troops to Ukraine (Google translation from RFE/RL live blog link in Russian):
Vladimir Putin made an appeal to the Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
The full text of the document:
"Due to the extraordinary situation on Ukraine, threatened the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, the personnel of the military contingent of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation located in accordance with the international agreement on the territory of Ukraine (Autonomous Republic of Crimea), on the basis of paragraph" d " Part 1 of Article 102 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation am submitting to the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation appeal for use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine to the normalization of the political situation in this country. "
Which is more than President Obama sought for the Libya War, you have to admit.
UPDATE: RFE/RL feed says Ukrainians alertng their military. I don't know if this means mobilizing reserves. It should. Latvia and Lithuania have invoked Article IV of the NATO treaty, which reads:
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.
And the UN Security Council is meeting.
UPDATE: Scratch the Article IV thing. It was considered. I'll admit I was puzzled since I didn't know how it would apply except to say "but for the grace of God go we" in regard to Ukraine.
