Bargaining Chip

Russian reinforcements of Crimea and their subliminal invasion are reducing the odds of a successful Ukrainian offensive to eject the Russians or at least besiege Sevastopol. What about Plan B?

I speculated on a Ukrainian counter-offensive into Crimea in the face of a Russian conquest.

But my scenario was a paper one, I admitted. Ukrainian readiness, the poor Cold War-era deployment of the Ukrainian army, and questions of military loyalty are all factors that say Ukraine couldn't pull off such an offensive in practice.

But as Russia moves, there is a vulnerable Russian outpost that Ukraine's 13th Corps in western Ukraine could handle--Trans-Dniestr, the breakaway Russian portion of Moldova.

There are only half a million people living there (bonus: 100,000 ethnic Ukrainians!), with a little over a thousand Russian military personnel stationed there.

If Russia continues their invasion of Crimea, why couldn't Ukrainian troops from 13th Corps occupy Trans-Dniestr?

Remember, only 3 Russian colonies recognize the independence of that region: Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia!

This response to Russia minimizes the need to put the Ukrainian army on the road. 8th Corps stays put. 6th Corps in the east stays put while its brigades in the west protect Odessa and seal off the neck of Crimea to contain the Russians (and put mobilized reservists in urban areas to hold them) while deploying air defense weapons to the neck area in support to see if they can cover the northern peninsula.

I thought the Ukrainians had some long-range Russian models with a good range.

Having a victory over Russian troops would be good for Ukrainian morale and buffer the morale effect of the loss of Crimea.