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Sunday, February 09, 2014

The Northern Flank

Japan is shifting their forces south away from Russia in order to counter Chinese territorial ambitions. Improving ties with America and Russia are necessary to pull this off.

America has reaffirmed our alliance with Japan:

"I ... underscored that the United States remains as committed as ever to upholding our treaty obligations with our Japanese allies," Kerry told reporters after talks with Kishida.

"That includes with respect to the East China Sea," Kerry said. He reiterated that Washington "neither recognizes nor accepts" an air-defense zone China has declared in the region that it disputes with Japan and other Asia nations. Kerry also said the United States would not change how it conducts operations there.

China needs to hear this. If they think they can push Japan around, they need to remember that we will assist Japan if it comes to shooting or occupation of Japanese administered territory.

In order to free up resources for a southern flank, Japan would like to have Russian friendship or at least neutrality. Which leads Japan to be warmer to Putin than we have reason to be:

Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Saturday to visit Japan in the autumn, fuelling hopes of progress on a territorial dispute dating back to World War Two that is hampering trade.

At talks during the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe greeted each other warmly and hailed the speed at which relations between their countries were improving - in contrast to Tokyo's strained ties with Beijing.

Agreement is not close in the dispute over the ownership of four Pacific islands, but the two leaders have held five summits in the last 13 months and agreed in Moscow last April to revive talks on a treaty which would unblock trade and business ties.

Friendship may not be near, given Russian refusal to return islands taken from Japan near the end of World War II, but a lessening of tensions would allow Russia to look inland to the Chinese ground and air threat to Russia's Far East while Japan looks south to China's air and naval threat.