I should reexamine my position on whether Spetsnaz are moving around Crimea airports given this news:
Russian troops have moved into Crimea in what Moscow is calling a mission to “protect Black Sea Fleet’s positions” but which the Ukrainian government has denounced as an “armed intervention.”
The Russian foreign ministry said Friday that it had informed the Ukrainian government that armoured units from the Black Sea Fleet base near Sevastopol had entered Crimea in order to protect fleet positions.
The Russian naval infantry at Sevastopol have armored vehicles. But not many. And there aren't many naval infantry--3,000, I think.
So if the Russians want a real expanded perimeter rather than just road blocks, they'll need more troops--paratroopers flown in until troops can cross the Kerch Strait and march to the base--for that mission.
And if the need paratroopers, they need airports. I'm starting to think that rumors of Spetsnaz around Crimea airports have a basis in fact.
But I'm suspicious that way.
UPDATE: Of course, given that the legislative basis for annexing Crimea will take time to establish, as well as taking time for a Crimean body to credibly ask for Russian protection, such troop movements could simply be to desensitize Ukrainians to such movements before a real operation takes place.
That's what we did before the 1989 invasion of Panama.
So also watch for troops to be added to the Sevastopol garrision in the near future. We also did that.
And see if Russia's airborne troops and air transports are matched up and readied around Russia.
Russia planned a long time for the Georgia War. Given that the Ukraine crisis evolved to this new stage quickly, the Russians probably need quite a bit of lead time to arrange an invasion.
UPDATE: Russian troop placement well before the Russo-Georgia War of 2008. So Russia needs time just for a good showing in a war to take Georgia-sized Crimea.
Lord knows how much time Russia would need for the larger eastern Ukraine--let alone all of Ukraine--to avoid a military operation that makes it obvious that Russian military power is still fairly weak.
