I wondered about al Qaeda being torn between the Iraq and Syria fronts.
This article notes the problem:
The al-Qaeda-linked group’s setbacks in Syria are in contrast to its fresh successes in neighboring Iraq, where its challenge to the Baghdad government has thrust it into renewed prominence. But even in Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, was facing new pressure Tuesday, with the government launching airstrikes in the western province of Anbar as it sought to regain control of cities seized by militants.
Iraq is preparing to counter-attack:
The Iraqi army deployed tanks and artillery around Falluja on Tuesday, security officials said, as local leaders in the besieged city urged al Qaeda-linked militants to leave in order to avert an impending military assault.
Security officials and tribal leaders have said that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki agreed to hold off an offensive to give people in Falluja time to push the militants out. But it is not clear how long they have before troops storm the town, close to Baghdad, where U.S. forces fought notable battles a decade ago.
"Tribal leaders appealed to the prime minister to halt the attack and stop shelling Falluja," an Iraqi special forces officer told Reuters. "We've done our part of the deal. Now they should do theirs. If not, a quick offensive is coming."
Either the local tribes drive out al Qaeda or the army will do it--with more firepower that lacks the precision we'd bring to the table.
The war on al Qaeda goes on.
Iraq still needs our help to do that.
And the Syria developments show that the despair at the rise of foreign jihadis was way too premature.
I still wonder where ISIL will focus their resources. I'd guess that Syria is still safer territory for the jihadis than Iraq is. But it will be tough for ISIL to deprive resources for newly successful al Qaeda holding out in Anbar province to hold off the newly aggressive non-al Qaeda rebels in Syria.
If I had more confidence in our deviousness, I'd think that the rebel offensive on al Qaeda in Syria was timed to coincide with a jihadi offensive in Iraq that gets that branch of al Qaeda too engaged to reinforce Syria. I wish we were that good.
In any case, work the problems, people. And kill jihadis, of course.
